Can Dallas Cowboys' Andy Dalton show up Bengals in his return to Cincinnati?

Cowboys (3-9) at Bengals (2-9-1)

1 p.m. ET | Fox

Matchup rating: 12.4 | Spread: DAL -3.5 (42.5)

What to watch for: Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton is making his return to Cincinnati, where he was a starter for the first nine years of his career. The loser of this game will strengthen its position for the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL draft, and the Bengals have dropped four straight games, struggling to score since QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. -- Ben Baby

Bold prediction: The Cowboys will not have a turnover against the Bengals. While that might not seem bold for most teams, it is for the Cowboys. They have had at least one giveaway in all but two games this season. Dalton has at least one pick in each of his five starts as the quarterback, but he will not have one in his return to Cincinnati. Only four teams have fewer takeaways than the Bengals' 12, including the Cowboys. -- Todd Archer

Stat to know: Dallas has allowed 167.8 rushing yards per game this season, on pace to be the second-worst mark in a season in Cowboys history (186.8 in 1960). In more recent history, it's also the worst mark by any NFL team since the 2010 Bills (169.6).

Playoff/draft picture: Following their loss to the Ravens, the Cowboys now have a 1% chance of making the playoffs, per FPI (Cincinnati is already eliminated). And both teams have 0.1% chance at the top pick right now. Realistically, it's all about the No. 3 spot -- the Cowboys are projected to pick fourth, while the Bengals are third.

Injuries: Cowboys | Bengals

What to know for fantasy: Bengals receiver Tee Higgins has at least five targets in 11 straight games and at least five catches in six of his past seven. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Dallas is 2-9 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Archer's pick: Cowboys 23, Bengals 20

Baby's pick: Cowboys 17, Bengals 12

FPI prediction: CIN, 63.5% (by an average of 4.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: As other first-year programs take root, Cowboys' arrow points down ... Bengals show they have lot of work to do to better protect Burrow in 2021