The NFL season is fast approaching, but fantasy football season is already here. To celebrate the ESPN Fantasy Football Marathon, this week NFL Nation reporters will be giving their fantasy predictions for the top offensive players on the teams they cover.
ESPN fantasy football analyst Mike Clay provided the over/unders -- using his 2018 projections -- and each Nation reporter was given one projection for each position on which to give a prediction. The full schedule:
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Scan through all 32 teams, or click on the logos below to go directly to your favorite team:
Over/under 3,693 passing yards for Dak Prescott
Todd Archer's prediction: Under, but barely. Prescott threw for 3,667 yards as a rookie and 3,324 yards in his second season with Jason Witten available for every game and Dez Bryant available for all but three games. Neither guy will be around this year, which will affect the passing game. But it's not just that. It's style of play. The Cowboys will rely on Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line to make this offense go. If Prescott is in the 3,600-yard range, then the Cowboys should have success. If he is upward of 4,000 yards, then they will have played from behind a lot.
Over/under 26 passing TDs for Eli Manning
Jordan Raanan's prediction: Over -- barely. Manning has topped that number only twice in the past six years. He hit it on the dot twice during that span. With all the weapons and new coach Pat Shurmur at his disposal, it's hard to see Manning not having a slight uptick in his numbers.
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Over/under 33 total TDs for Carson Wentz
Tim McManus' prediction: Under. It's not set in stone that Wentz is going to start the season, and it's to be determined how well he performs in his first season back from a torn ACL/LCL. He's talented enough to reach these heights -- heck, he had 33 TDs last year despite missing three-plus games -- but this might be asking a bit much.
Over/under 26 total TDs for Alex Smith
John Keim's prediction: Under, but barely. This is a hard one because Kirk Cousins topped this total in each of his three seasons as a starter under Jay Gruden. Cousins had a combined 13 rushing touchdowns the past three years; Smith has 14 for his career. Smith is more athletic, but Cousins' runs often caught the defense by surprise -- and a team with a weak running game inside the 20 needed that element. If the skill players -- and the line -- stay relatively healthy, then they can have a more diverse red zone attack. Keep in mind, too, that Smith has topped 26 total touchdowns only once in his career; of course, that was in 2017. It's easy to see Smith throwing for 24 touchdowns, having one or two rushing touchdowns -- and others doing more of the work in the running game.
Over/under 25 total TDs for Mitchell Trubisky
Nick Friedell's prediction: Under. Matt Nagy's offense should be beneficial for Trubisky's growth, but to go from just seven TDs in his rookie season to 25 now is just too much to expect. If Trubisky can get anywhere close to this number, the Bears would be very happy.
Over/under 575 pass attempts for Matthew Stafford
Michael Rothstein's prediction: Over. It'll be close, though. Stafford has gone under 575 attempts only once in the past seven seasons, and while Detroit wants to run the ball more the offense is still built to be one relying heavily on the pass. So Stafford gets over 575 (and as a bonus, he throws for over 4,000 yards for the eighth straight season).
Over/under 34 passing TDs for Aaron Rodgers
Rob Demovsky's prediction: Over. The last time Rodgers broke his collarbone, he came back the next season to throw 38 touchdowns on the way to his second NFL MVP. Now, he has a giant red zone target in Jimmy Graham, plus an emerging star in Davante Adams.
Over/under 4,328 passing yards for Kirk Cousins
Courtney Cronin's prediction: Under. Cousins threw for 4,917 yards in 2016 surrounded by the best supporting cast from his time in Washington. His weapons in Minnesota might be even better, but with Dalvin Cook back, the Vikings are expected to place a heavy emphasis on the run. Cousins is a fantasy owners' dream, but the one thing he didn't have during those three straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards is the backing of the league's No. 1 defense. With that in mind, the QB won't be pressed into many late-game situations where he has to stage a shootout to come away with a victory.
Over/under 26 passing TDs for Matt Ryan
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Over. Ryan had just 20 touchdown passes in 2017, his lowest season total since 16 as a rookie. The offense struggled in the first year under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, but Year 2 is expected to be much smoother. Ryan is working to refine chemistry with top receiver Julio Jones, who had only three touchdowns last season. Ryan also has a new toy in rookie Calvin Ridley, and plenty of other options, including running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and tight end Austin Hooper.
Over/under 627 rushing yards for Cam Newton
David Newton's prediction: Under. With Christian McCaffrey expected to play a bigger role in the ground game, the addition of 1,000-yard rusher C.J. Anderson and new coordinator Norv Turner asking Newton to look to pass before running, don't expect Newton to lead the team in rushing again this season.
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Over/under 28 passing TDs for Drew Brees
Mike Triplett's prediction: Over. This projection seems just about right, since the Saints' offense has become more balanced and Brees had only 23 TD passes last year. However, he had at least 32 TD passes every year from 2008 to 2016. Even though the Saints are truly more balanced now, it's a bit fluky that they finished with 23 TD passes and 23 TD runs last year. No other team in the NFL ran for more than 18 TDs.
Over/under 3,599 passing yards for Jameis Winston
Jenna Laine's prediction: Over. In 13 games last season, Winston managed to throw for 3,504 yards. That included a couple of games where his accuracy was definitely impacted by a shoulder injury. It also included two games -- Arizona and New Orleans -- where Winston left early because of the injury. So if he can reach 3,504 in 13 games injured, he should be able to surpass 3,599 in 13 games in 2018.
Over/under eight starts for Josh Rosen
Josh Weinfuss' prediction: Over. With Sam Bradford's injury history, it's tough to believe the veteran will play a whole season. Half a season seems high, too, considering he played in two games last season. Rosen's playing time will be dictated by Bradford's health.
Over/under 548 pass attempts for Jared Goff
Lindsey Thiry's prediction: Under. In 15 starts last season, Goff attempted 477 passes, which averages out to 31.8 pass attempts per game. Even if he had started 16 games, he would have fallen more than 40 passes short of 548. It's unlikely Goff's pass attempts will increase dramatically this season, given he still has the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year in his backfield. Further, the probability of explosive plays increases with Brandin Cooks' addition as a deep target, thus reducing the number of throws Goff might attempt.
Over/under 4,354 passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo
Nick Wagoner's prediction: Over. In five starts last year, Garoppolo averaged about 308 passing yards per game, a pace that would easily eclipse this number if he held it up over a 16-game season. That might be asking a bit too much in his first season as a full-time starter but to reach this mark, it would mean averaging 272 yards a game, a number that seems feasible for Garoppolo now that he has a full offseason under his belt to learn more of coach Kyle Shanahan's offense and develop further rapport with his pass-catchers.
Over/under 521 pass attempts for Russell Wilson
Brady Henderson's prediction: Under. Wilson's attempts jumped to 546 in 2016 and 553 last season, but that was out of necessity and not by design as Seattle couldn't run the ball. The Seahawks want to revive their once-strong running game and Wilson won't have to do as much.
Over/under seven starts for Josh Allen
Mike Rodak's prediction: Under. Bills coach Sean McDermott insists the team is taking a "calculated" approach with Allen and does not want to rush him, and after the performance of their two non-rookie quarterbacks in the preseason opener, they have no reason yet to force Allen onto the field. Perhaps the Bills' grueling schedule the first half of the season will change that.
Over/under 24 total TDs for Ryan Tannehill
Mike Rodak's prediction: Over. Tannehill met or exceeded that number in each season from 2013 through 2015 and was about on pace for it in 2016 before his injury. He lost Jarvis Landry this offseason but Landry accounted for only 11 of Tannehill's 70 touchdowns from 2014 through 2016.
Over/under 4,729 passing yards for Tom Brady
Mike Reiss' prediction: Under. Brady passed for 4,577 yards last season, and with transition at the WR position early in the season, the expectation of some turbulence in the passing game seems likely. While the short passing game is an extension of the running game, and counts as passing yardage, it would still be relying on a lot of YAC to hit 4,729 yards.
Over/under seven starts for Sam Darnold
Rich Cimini's prediction: Over. The rookie has a legitimate chance to be the Week 1 starter, depending on how he performs in the preseason. If he doesn't get the job, he'll be in the lineup by Halloween. He's too poised and too talented to keep on the bench. The Jets' hierarchy wants him to get significant playing time this season.
Over/under 37 pass attempts for Lamar Jackson
Jamison Hensley's prediction: Under. If this were rush attempts, I would've gone with the over. But in terms of pass attempts, the better projection would be between 15 and 20. When offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg had Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick in Philadelphia nine years ago, Vick was used in special packages and finished with 13 pass attempts. That's a good barometer.
Over/under 24 passing TDs for Andy Dalton
Katherine Terrell's prediction: Over. It probably won't be over by much, but Dalton managed 25 passing touchdowns last season despite the struggles of the offense. If the offensive line improves, Dalton should have around that number again.
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Over/under 12 starts for Tyrod Taylor
Pat McManamon's prediction: Over. The Browns believe in Taylor, and they will do all they can to protect him. The goal this season is not to force Baker Mayfield on the field too early. Taylor has done nothing to indicate he can't play, and in the past three seasons in Buffalo he started 43 games. That means he stays on the field. The Browns will do enough offensively and win enough games early -- yes, they will win games -- to keep Taylor the starter into December.
Over/under 4,534 passing yards for Ben Roethlisberger
Jeremy Fowler's prediction: Under. Roethlisberger will surpass 4,000 yards and produce enough downfield explosion in Heinz Field to make this interesting. But he has surpassed 4,350 yards only once in 14 seasons, and the offense must find its way early in the season without Martavis Bryant and with Le'Veon Bell missing preseason work. Roethlisberger looks motivated and has had an edge to him in training camp, so this mark isn't out of the question. It's just not a safe bet based on precedent and the lack of consistent yardage on the road.
Over/under 30 total TDs for Deshaun Watson
Sarah Barshop's prediction: Over. This, of course, depends on whether Watson can stay healthy, but it's hard to see him not averaging at least two touchdowns per game. He was on an incredible pace as a rookie, with 21 total touchdowns (19 passing) in seven games. With a full offseason under his belt, even if he cools off from a year ago he should still be a very productive player.
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Over/under 15 starts for Andrew Luck
Mike Wells' prediction: Over. I'm going with the over because this is the healthiest Luck has been since before the 2015 season, and he's playing behind his best offensive line since entering the league in 2012.
Over/under 3,725 passing yards for Blake Bortles
Mike DiRocco's prediction: Under. The Jaguars remain committed to the running game first -- they added All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell in free agency -- and those inside the organization believe Leonard Fournette is primed for a big season. The Jaguars didn't consistently run the ball the last six weeks of the regular season and are working on being able to better run it when defenses know they're going to. Bortles could come close to this number, but he won't surpass it.
Over/under 27 total TDs for Marcus Mariota
Turron Davenport's prediction: Over. The Titans are looking to unleash Mariota's dual-threat ability. The offense will include more run-pass option looks as well as play-action. That allows Mariota to do what he does best -- make plays on the move resulting in some additional rushing TDs. Matt LaFleur will call some designed runs for Mariota to keep defenses honest.
Over/under 4,089 passing yards for Case Keenum
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Under. Some of it is the franchise's offensive tradition. Before Peyton Manning's arrival, the Broncos had only three 4,000-yard passing seasons on the docket -- one each by John Elway, Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler. It doesn't mean Keenum can't set a career single-season best for passing yards and threaten the 4,000-yard mark. But the Broncos envision an active, productive running game in their offense. The Broncos will be searching for a little more run-pass balance than other teams, especially if they play with the lead -- something they didn't do much of in last season's 5-11 cave-in.
Over/under 26 total TDs for Patrick Mahomes II
Adam Teicher's prediction: Under. Only eight quarterbacks had more than 26 touchdown passes last season. It's difficult to picture Mahomes topping that in his first season as a starter, though with pass-catchers such as Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill, it wouldn't be a huge surprise.
Over/under 28 passing TDs for Philip Rivers
Eric D. Williams' prediction: Under. Rivers has thrown more than 28 touchdown passes in a single season only five times during his 15-year career. While the Chargers will lean on the passing game to move the football, at his core coach Anthony Lynn wants to run it -- and that means more touches near the red zone in the running game for Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.
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Over/under 24 passing TDs for Derek Carr
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Over. Sure, Carr threw only 22 touchdown passes last season, his fewest since he had 21 as a rookie in 2014. But in his four-year career, he is averaging nearly 26 TD passes per season. And with Jon Gruden running his version of the West Coast offense with Carr's strong arm, the QB is ripe for a rebound.
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Scan through all 32 teams, or click on the logos below to go directly to your favorite team:
Over/under 43 receptions for Ezekiel Elliott
Todd Archer's prediction: Over. With no Witten or Bryant, the Cowboys are going to need somebody to pick up the pace when it comes to the passing game. That figures to be Elliott, who will be asked to do more than just catch swing and screen passes in his third year. They want to use him as a mismatch player. In Scott Linehan's first year as the playcaller, DeMarco Murray had 57 catches and set the franchise record with 1,845 rushing yards, so he is not averse to giving his back many chances.
Over/under 258 carries for Saquon Barkley