Ground game could be deciding factor between Lions and Falcons

Lions (2-3) at Falcons (1-5)

1 p.m. ET | Fox

Matchup rating: 36.8 | Spread: ATL -2 (55)

What to watch for: Which Todd Gurley will the Falcons get this weekend: the Week 5 version, when he had 121 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against the Panthers, or the Week 6 version, when he averaged 2.4 yards per carry against the Vikings? The Lions are allowing 145 rushing yards per game (the fourth most in the NFL), which according to ESPN Stats & Information research is the team's most since allowing 172.1 when it went 0-16 in 2008. -- Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: In a game between two teams that have spent most of the season losing fourth-quarter leads, both squads will end up doing it again, with wild swings during the final 15 minutes and a last-second, game-winning field goal. Would you expect anything less from Atlanta and Detroit? Their two most recent matchups ended with a 10-second runoff and then a delay of game penalty that allowed Matt Prater to take a second attempt at a field goal. -- Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Lions running back D'Andre Swift has 6.9 yards per touch this season, best among rookie backs. He also leads the Lions with four touchdowns from scrimmage.

Injuries: Lions | Falcons

What to know for fantasy: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is averaging 28 fantasy points per game this season when he has a fully healthy Julio Jones, up from 10.3 when his star wide receiver was hampered/inactive. See Week 7 rankings.

Betting nugget: Atlanta is 5-10 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season. Read more.

Rothstein's pick: Lions 31, Falcons 30

Barshop's pick: Falcons 30, Lions 27

FPI prediction: ATL, 59.1% (by an average of 3.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Life bonds started from football: Ryan and Stafford's friendship ... Falcons' Morris is auditioning to earn another head-coaching job ... Swift had a breakout against Jacksonville -- and the rookie needs more of it