Falcons strive to reverse home blues against Broncos team vying for .500

Broncos (3-4) at Falcons (2-6)

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 39.4 | Spread: ATL -4 (50)

What to watch for: The Falcons' secondary is improving, thanks in part to a pass rush that has generated 20 of its 47 QB hits and six of its 13 sacks over the past three games. And Broncos QB Drew Lock is completing an NFL-worst 58% of his passes and has the fifth-highest off-target percentage in the league, per ESPN Stats & Information. -- Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: The Broncos will rush for at least 140 yards, even after coach Vic Fangio was asked repeatedly about letting Lock throw more this week after the team scored 21 points in the fourth quarter when the Broncos were in up-tempo, chuck-it-around mode in Sunday's win over the Chargers. The Broncos need to keep the ball to beat Atlanta. -- Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has a 72.3% completion rate and 89.3 Total QBR with wide receiver Julio Jones on the field this season, but Ryan's numbers fall to 59.1% completions and 45.1 Total QBR without him. Jones leads all NFL players with 123.7 receiving yards per game over his past three contests.

Injuries: Broncos | Falcons

What to know for fantasy: Denver rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy led the NFL with 159 air yards last week but scored just 11.3 fantasy points in the process. For reference, the other 12 players with at least 100 air yards last week averaged 21.6 fantasy points. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Atlanta is 0-4 outright at home and as a favorite this season. Atlanta is also 2-7 outright as a favorite since the start of last season. Read more.

Legwold's pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 24

DiRocco's pick: Falcons 31, Broncos 21

FPI prediction: ATL, 62.7% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: 'Dream Killer' Reed gives Broncos' pass rush hope ... Falcons' defense changed the narrative to finish a game. Can they keep it up? ... Ex-Broncos QB Plummer on 499-yard day vs. Falcons: 'I remember we lost' ... Falcons coach: McKinley to be 'held accountable' after tweeting on trade offers ... Broncos' Callahan rewards Fangio's faith with production