ACC race update: Week 13

The race to play Florida State in the ACC championship gets zanier and more unpredictable each week.

First, Miami was in control of its destiny. Now, the Canes face the longest odds of making it to Charlotte thanks to a three-game losing streak.

Then Virginia Tech seemed like the favorite. Until the Hokies lost to Maryland last week.

Now all eyes are on Duke (8-2), the only team in control of the Coastal Division. If the Blue Devils win out, they get their first trip to the ACC title game. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, when is anything ever this simple in the ACC?

Our friend Patrick Stevens over at Syracuse.com, bless his heart, laid out all 32 scenarios that could unfold in the Coastal over the next two weeks. Here, we present the simplest scenarios for the four teams with the best odds of making it to the ACC title game.

What Duke needs: Win out. A win over Wake Forest on Saturday would give Duke at least a co-division championship.

What Miami needs: Win out and have Virginia Tech lose and Duke lose; Miami would win a four-way tie with Duke, Georgia Tech and North Carolina (this assumes a Tar Heels win over the Blue Devils next week).

What Georgia Tech needs: The Jackets have finished league play with a 5-3 record. They have a win over Duke but loses to Miami and Virginia Tech. The Jackets need Virginia Tech to lose to Virginia, first and foremost. If that happens, scenarios that favor Georgia Tech include head-to-head tiebreakers with Duke and North Carolina; and a three-way tie with Duke and North Carolina.

What Virginia Tech needs: Beat Virginia on the final weekend of the regular season and have somebody beat Duke. Virginia Tech lost to the Blue Devils, but beat Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The Hokies would have the edge in several three, four and five-way tiebreaker scenarios based on those head-to-head wins and 5-1 Coastal record. Must avoid head-to-head tiebreaker with Duke.