Big 12 Upset Alert: Week 14

Every week, I take a look at the game most likely to go the way experts don't expect.

There are a few to pick from this time, but here's who I'm going with.

My pick: TCU vs. Oklahoma

The Sooners are coming off four consecutive wins, and the last two were both extremely emotional and decided late. Oklahoma never led until the final snap of overtime against Oklahoma State and won on a touchdown pass in the final minute against West Virginia.

Think OU might be a little tired? I do. It'll trek to Fort Worth this weekend to face TCU as a touchdown favorite. Oklahoma's got a lot to play for -- a possible outright Big 12 title leads the list -- but the Frogs will be a much different challenge than Oklahoma State. TCU's improved a whole lot in the past month, and has emerged as the Big 12's best defense. Oklahoma can't count on hanging 50 points against TCU, and the Frogs' physical running game rolled over Texas last week.

The Sooners, meanwhile, have given up at least 200 rushing yards in their last three games, including 458 against West Virginia. TCU leads the Big 12 in rushing defense and total defense, and has given up just nine rushing touchdowns all season. When you can prevent Oklahoma from running the ball, you can tee off on Landry Jones and force him into mistakes. Ask Notre Dame. Then add in what should be a raucous road atmosphere in Fort Worth, and the Frogs might close the season in style against the Sooners.

TCU has found out all season that a good defense will keep you in a lot of ballgames and win you even more. That happened last week against Texas, and the Frogs even shut down Kansas State's offense. The Frogs seniors haven't won a single Big 12 game at home this season, but will get a shot to change that on Saturday morning's Senior Day.