Earlier, we filled your inquiring minds with everything you could have wanted to know about each first-round matchup with GK implications. But there’s no slacking here in GK Central, so now we’re moving on to the round of 32. Below, you’ll find upset odds for each potential second-round matchup (except for those involving a 16-seed, because if you’re searching for upset odds for a 16-seed in the second round, you need more help than we can provide). Before we get to the numbers, allow us to share a couple of thoughts.
-- You will notice a couple of cases when a team with a lower Giant Killer rating has a better chance of an upset than its higher-rated counterpart. (For instance, check out Tulsa and Michigan against West Virginia.) That’s the result of cluster analysis, which you can read about here. Our model divides Giants into one of four families and does the same for Killers, then adjusts its upset odds based on historical meetings between those families. (It’s a clash of clans, you might say.)
-- Since we didn’t tackle any of the 7- through 10-seeds in yesterday’s regional previews (since they don’t play first-round GK games), we’ll pause in a couple of places to offer brief analysis on ripe second-round upsets that involve those squads. And on that note, let’s get to the math: