Most likely round of 32 upsets

We’ve spent the past two days preparing you for every possible upset in the round of 64. But that’s not enough to win your pool. So we’ve put together all the realistic Giant Killer matchups for the round of 32 and computed upset chances for each potential contest.

Since the 8-9 and 7-10 games don’t count as GK upsets, this will be our first look at those 16 teams, as we profile their chances of knocking off a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. And even in a year that is light on highly rated Killers, some of those top programs are in serious jeopardy.

Enough pretense, let’s get to the upsets.


No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Memphis Tigers or No. 9 George Washington Colonials

Upset chances: 24.7 percent vs. Memphis | 21.2 percent vs. GW

Virginia is somewhat more vulnerable than the typical No. 1 seed, in part because the Cavs don’t force many turnovers and also because our model sees them as the No. 8 team in the nation, rather than a top-four squad. Memphis does a good job of combining offensive rebounding with a defense that forces bundles of steals (12.2 percent), while GW employs a similar combo of tactics -- just slightly less effectively.