Chiefs vs. Browns NFL divisional playoff game could come down to who has the ball last

(6) Browns at (1) Chiefs

Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 62.4 | Spread: KC -10 (57.5)

What to watch for: The Chiefs have unsuccessfully fought a season-long battle to force opponents to kick more field goals and score fewer touchdowns when they are in the red zone. They allowed a TD on 77% of opponent trips inside the 20, which was the worst in the league. This game would be a good time to fix the problem. The Browns are efficient offensively inside the 20, scoring a touchdown 74% of the time. That was third-best in the NFL. -- Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Reprising their 2016 college shootout, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and and Browns QB Baker Mayfield will combine for seven touchdown passes. But Mahomes gets the ball last this time and propels K.C. into the next round with a game-winning drive. -- Jake Trotter

Stat to know: Browns running back Nick Chubb has scored a TD in seven straight games, the longest streak by a Browns player since 1970 (Bo Scott also went seven straight). The Browns are 10-3 when Chubb plays this season, scoring a rushing TD in 12 of those 13 games, averaging 163.0 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry as a team. Without Chubb? Cleveland is just 2-2 with 95.5 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per rush and zero scores on the ground.

Injuries: Browns | Chiefs

Bowen's matchup key: With a zone-heavy approach, out of two-deep shells, the Browns can "top" the Chiefs' seams and outside verticals. That will force Mahomes to throw into underneath windows and contain the deep-ball game. Read more.

Betting nugget: The "Andy Reid off a bye" narrative gets plenty of attention, and his 8-3 record outright off of byes (regular season or playoffs) with the Chiefs is nice. But he is just 6-5 against the spread in those games, with unders going 6-4-1. Read more.

Trotter's pick: Chiefs 35, Browns 34

Teicher's pick: Chiefs 27, Browns 22

FPI prediction: KC, 81.3% (by an average of 11.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ghostbuster Mayfield exorcising playoff demons, giving Browns confidence ... Smoked Sausage, Black Pearl, Ferrari Right: How Chiefs creatively name their wild plays ... The legend of Mayfield and Mahomes' 2016 epic ... Since releasing Hunt, Chiefs have had seven different backs lead them in rushing ... Kingsbury gave Chiefs' Mahomes and Browns' Mayfield a chance when others passed