NCAA tournament championship probability

Mark Few's Gonzaga team entered Thursday's game with a 48 percent chance to make the Final Four, according to BPI. James Snook/USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s live NCAA tournament probabilities below provide a visual representation of each team’s chances to make the Final Four and win the championship over the course of tonight's games. The images combine ESPN’s live in-game win probabilities with the Basketball Power Index season projections to track a team’s chances to win its bracket region and the tournament over time. We will be cycling through the most interesting projections throughout the night, so check back to see how a team’s chances have changed. Round-by-round projections for each team are found here and updated throughout the day.




How does this work?

The probabilities are updated as the games progress based on our live win-probability calculations. Live in-game win probability measures a team’s chance to win based on the current game state (score, time remaining, possession, team and opponent's strength, game site). These live in-game win probabilities are used by ESPN’s Basketball Power Index NCAA tournament projections, which simulate the tournament based on each team’s strength, path to the final and potential future opponents. The result is a representation of a team’s chance to make each remaining round of the NCAA tournament.