NCAA tournament championship probability

Duke's goal is to cut down another set of nets at tournament's end. Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s live NCAA tournament probabilities below provide a visual representation of each team’s chances to make the Final Four and win the NCAA championship over the course of today's games. They combine ESPN’s live in-game win probabilities with the Basketball Power Index season projections to track a team’s chances to win its bracket region and the tournament over time. We will be cycling through the most interesting projections throughout the day, so check back in to see how your team’s chances have changed. Round-by-round projections for each team are found here and updated throughout the day.






How does this work?

The playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress based on our live win probability estimates. Live in-game win probability measures a team’s chance to win based on the current game state (score, time remaining, possession, team and opponent's strength, game site). These live game win probabilities are used by ESPN’s Basketball Power Index NCAA tournament projections, which simulate the tournament based on each team’s strength, path to the final and potential future opponents. The end result is a representation of a team’s chance to make each remaining round of the NCAA tournament.