4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 98.1 | Spread: KC -3.5 (55.5)
What to watch for: The Chiefs' pass defense may be looking suspect in recent weeks, but the Bucs' defense just gave up a season-high 376 passing yards to the Rams, mainly due to missed tackles and coverage breakdowns. The Buccaneers are also allowing a 69.2% completion percentage against the blitz -- fourth worst in the league -- and getting picked apart in their zone coverages. It could be a long day against the defending Super Bowl champs, although Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has shown that he can bounce back after tough losses. -- Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will combine with Brady for at least six touchdown passes. The two -- despite playing in some high-scoring head-to-head battles -- have never combined for more than five in a game. But the Chiefs are playing poor pass defense of late; they allowed five touchdown throws in the past two games. Mahomes has 11 TD passes in the past three games. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Mahomes has a 98 QBR when blitzed, the highest of any quarterback in a season since QBR was first tracked in 2006, and has thrown 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions when facing the blitz. He has been blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league (20%), but Tampa Bay sends extra pass-rushers at the second-highest rate (42%) and has forced the most interceptions (seven) with their blitz.
Betting nugget: Brady is 10-1 ATS and 9-2 outright as a home underdog in his career. Read more.
Teicher's pick: Chiefs 33, Buccaneers 26
Laine's pick: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 28
FPI prediction: KC, 56.4% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: After three epic games, Round 4 of Mahomes vs. Brady could be the last ... Should Chiefs worry about sagging pass-rush production? ... Arians: Brady's issue continuity, not confidence ... Mahomes: Not at 'global star' Brady's level yet.