NFL Week 3 upset picks

Ben Fawkes

Here's one of the best-kept secrets of the football world over the past couple of years: The Washington Redskins are not a bad football team.

Two years ago, Washington went 8-7-1 and ranked in the top 10 by Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings (explained here). Washington looked worse than it really was because of a difficult schedule, ranked No. 3 in the NFL by average DVOA of opponent.

Last season, Washington dropped to 7-9 but was still ranked 16th by Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Once again, Washington looked worse than it really was because of the No. 3-toughest schedule.

This year, Washington has started 1-1. The schedule is not an issue this season, but the Redskins rank 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings through two weeks.

Washington is not a bad football team -- it's a mediocre team that can steal some games at home. So can the Redskins pull off a shocker on Sunday, even against a great quarterback in Aaron Rodgers?