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NFL Week 5 early betting look: Valuable market trends to watch, defining expected value

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

We didn't have the upset mayhem in Week 4 that we saw in Week 3. The Bills are back to being the Bills after losing 22-0 in Green Bay. The Browns lost a game despite a fourth-quarter lead, a la 2017. The Patriots opened up a 38-0 lead over a Miami Dolphins team that people were buying as a contender after opening the season 3-0. In fact, only three underdogs won games this past week, -- but the point spreads were all under a touchdown, and the Bengals, Titans and Ravens are all potential playoff teams anyway.

We did see chaos and drama on a game-to-game basis. Nine of the 15 games went down to the final possession, and three went to overtime on Sunday alone. This usually makes for a fantastic weekend of football, and to top it off, we didn't lose a single wager that we placed on these games. Find some time to celebrate, or what I refer to as "psychologically integrating the wins" (more on this in next week's Handicapper's Toolbox). Seriously, though, come out to Las Vegas and there is a dinner waiting for you on me.

Without further ado, let's dive into some of the other details that stuck out to me in Week 4 -- and how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 5.


Though it's easy to overreact after four games, there are some clear trends emerging that are worth paying attention to. Context is key, and any given line can be imbalanced in either direction, but the state of these two teams in particular are worth keeping a close eye on.