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DVOA ratings point to Chiefs' Super Bowl odds as strong value

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Those of us in the business of advanced NFL statistics have worked long and hard on our respective metrics that rate how good teams are and tell us which teams are most likely to win the Super Bowl. Nonetheless, there's another set of numbers out there that will come close to the best advanced NFL power rating metrics.

It turns out that the Vegas odds are one of the best, most accurate ways of measuring team quality and probabilities going forward.

Nonetheless, Football Outsiders has some disagreements with the current Vegas odds. We've looked through our DVOA ratings through Week 5, and four teams stand out as offering value where Football Outsiders odds are better than the odds being given in Vegas.

(DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here.)

Las Vegas lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.


Kansas City Chiefs: 6-1 to win the Super Bowl