"We feel primed of a big underdog weekend, but the parity in the NFL seems as diminished as ever this season. The last thing we want to do as bettors is find ourselves looking solely for one type of bet -- i.e. underdogs. But I have a feeling that is where the value in the numbers will lie this week after the favorites dominated -- again."
Last week I predicted that dogs would be barking, and sure enough, underdogs covered in 10 of 16 Week 13 games. The ugly ones were extra valuable as well. The Cowboys were facing a Saints team that had covered nine straight against the spread. Dallas won outright. Nobody feels comfortable backing the worst teams in the NFL, but the Cardinals covered in Green Bay (and also won outright, resulting in Mike McCarthy getting fired by the Packers).
The Giants beat a red-hot Bears squad, whatever was left of Jacksonville with Cody Kessler starting at quarterback shut the Colts out 6-0, the Jets with Josh McCown under center almost upset the Titans outright, and even the infamous 2018 Raiders covered a monster number at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
For those who followed my opinions in the Week 13 "best bets" piece, they went 8-1 during a week that everyone is reporting the sportsbooks crushed the public (my only loss being Steelers -3, a favorite that blew a lead and lost outright to an underdog... imagine that). So how does this affect the market in Week 14? This is why