Week 2 NFL Best Bets: A number we like on each game

ESPN Illustration

Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:

Season ATS records:

Youmans: 3-1
Bearman: 1-0-1
Kezirian: 2-1
Fortenbaugh: 2-2
Clay: 1-1
Johnson: 2-5

Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.

1 p.m. games

New England Patriots (-18.5, 49) at Miami Dolphins

Johnson: I wrote Monday that I would be reluctantly backing the Dolphins if this line reached +17 or higher, and sure enough it blitzed right through the 17 and is sitting at 18.5. Prior to Week 1, I would have lined this game Patriots -13.5 on a neutral field, but this game is in Miami. If I thought a point spread of roughly -11 was fair for this Week 2 matchup, how much am I adjusting after their performances on Sunday? One of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make is overreacting to results in Week 1.