Week 3 NFL Best Bets: A number we like on each game

Can Bridgewater continue his success as an underdog? (0:52)

Doug Kezirian previews the underdog Saints as one of six teams with a new starting quarterback. (0:52)

Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:

Season ATS records:

Kezirian 5-2 (3-1 last week)
Youmans 6-2 (3-1)
Bearman 2-1-1 (1-1)
Clay 2-1 (0-1)
Fortenbaugh 3-4 (1-2)
Johnson 3-9 (1-4)

Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.

1 p.m. games

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)

Johnson (teaser alert!): I used the Falcons in a six-point teaser with the Packers in Week 3. I like the prospects of moving the spread through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in a game I project the Falcons to win 50.5% of the time anyway. Historically, six-point teasers through these key numbers are a profitable proposition, and I'm not giving up hope on a Falcons team that outgained the Eagles 6.0 yards per play to 4.0 on Sunday night. The defense held its own in the home opener, and while the Colts broke off a long run late in their Week 2 game to beat the Titans 19-17, I haven't been too impressed by anything their offense is bringing to the table under Jacoby Brissett.

Pick: Atlanta +7.5 in two-team, six-point teaser with