The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs (who have lost two in a row) and the Denver Broncos (who are riding a two-game winning streak).
ESPN betting analyst Joe Fortenbaugh and fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup between AFC West rivals.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Wednesday.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 49) at Denver Broncos
Travis Kelce over 0.5 receiving TDs (+145)
Clay: Kelce has scored only one touchdown this season, but a deeper look suggests a lot more are on the way. Kelce's OTD (opportunity-adjusted touchdown) is 3.3, which is 19th highest in the entire NFL. Kelce has seen five end zone targets (tied for sixth most) but has caught none of them after entering 2019 with a career conversion rate of 47% on end zone targets. In fact, Kelce scored 10 touchdowns (two against Denver) and ranked 14th in the league in end zone targets in 2018. Kelce remains a massive part of the Chiefs' offense, averaging 8.2 targets per game. If there's a red flag here, it's a Denver defense that has allowed only four passing touchdowns this season. Still, Kelce projects with a 47% chance to find paydirt, which is above this line's suggestion of 41%.