Week 7 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Fortenbaugh 3-1 (13-12 on season)
Youmans 1-1 (15-7)
Kezirian 0-3 (8-8)
Bearman 2-1 (6-5-1)
Clay 1-1 (5-4)
Preston Johnson 1-2 (10-14)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

1 p.m. games

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3, 49.5)

Youmans: Even when working with a skeleton crew of playmakers, rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been surprisingly good. Now he will get big-time help with the likely return of running back Saquon Barkley and tight end Evan Engram. The Giants are 2-2 straight up and against the spread with Jones starting, dropping the past two to the Patriots and Vikings, who each boast elite defenses. Arizona has allowed 23 points or more in all six games. The Cardinals are getting star cornerback Patrick Peterson back from suspension, but he's not an immediate cure for a defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed (414 yards per game) and 29th in scoring (28.5 points per game).

Arizona has moved into the top 10 in total offense (376.8 YPG) with rookie QB Kyler Murray showing improvement. As soft as the Giants' pass defense has been, their front seven looked much tougher and frequently pressured Tom Brady in the loss at New England. The Cardinals' back-to-back victories over the Bengals and Falcons only proved they can beat the league's worst teams. Barkley's comeback should give the Giants a big boost. This is a good spot for New York, and the price is right.