We finally had a week for the favorites in Week 7 in the NFL. An 8-5 mark against the spread isn't anything too drastic, but everyone had been calling for regression for the past couple of weeks, and it just hadn't turned yet. Sixty-two percent is a clip I would agree to any week, so shout out to the favorites out there that got the job done. Holding a few New York Jets tickets myself tonight, I'm hoping the favorites' mini-trend is already dead.
Interestingly enough, as I compared my Week 8 projections with Caesars' opening lines, nearly the entirety of the betting board lined up. I show small edges on the underdogs (Redskins +16 and Bengals +12.5) in the Thursday night game and London game, but it's not enough for me to fire this early in the week before I dig into matchup data. I never want to force action anyway, so I only have one bet that I've made at this point in the early market.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 8 line I'm investing in now
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 42.5)
I'm making Fitzmagic great again. Last week in our first-look column, I broke down embracing the high-variance approach of Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and betting the over 39.5. Not only was the 31-21 result a success, but the 42.5-point closing number in Buffalo also points to our process being sound. I'm going back to the well and snagging the over 42.5 for Week 8's Monday night game in Pittsburgh.