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Finding a betting edge with overachieving and underachieving CFB teams

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Bad Beats include GA Southern, Eastern Michigan (3:19)

SVP and Stanford Steve break down Week 8's Bad Beats, with Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern going to triple overtime and Eastern Michigan squeaking just over the point total. (3:19)

One of the primary keys to deriving gambling value from college football statistics is being able to determine what is real and what is not. This is the ultimate small-sample sport, and waiting for statistical significance in looking for trends doesn't really get you anywhere.

It might be worth our while, then, to look at the teams that have either drastically overachieved or underachieved in recent weeks and attempt to figure out what's real, what isn't, and why.

Recent underachievers

Nevada Wolf Pack (4-3 overall, 1-2 last four weeks)

  • Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -18.4 PPG

  • Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -19.0 PPG