One of the primary keys to deriving gambling value from college football statistics is being able to determine what is real and what is not. This is the ultimate small-sample sport, and waiting for statistical significance in looking for trends doesn't really get you anywhere.
It might be worth our while, then, to look at the teams that have either drastically overachieved or underachieved in recent weeks and attempt to figure out what's real, what isn't, and why.
Nevada Wolf Pack (4-3 overall, 1-2 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -18.4 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -19.0 PPG