Week 10 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate. (Note: Due to the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes' availability Sunday, we do not currently have the Chiefs-Titans game up.)

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Fortenbaugh 4-1 (18-19 on season)
Youmans 2-2 (19-14)
Kezirian 0-0-1 (10-13-1)
Bearman 1-1 (9-9-1)
Clay 4-1 (12-7)
Preston Johnson 0-1-1 (12-18-1)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

1 p.m. games

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5, 52)

Youmans: It might be a mirage in the desert, but the Cardinals' high-profile rookies -- quarterback Kyler Murray and coach Kliff Kingbury -- have not been out of their league. After a poor preseason, Arizona appeared to be a team to fade, yet it is now 6-3 ATS. Murray has been better than expected and Kingsbury's offense is surprisingly effective. The Cardinals averaged 7.1 yards per play and scored 25 points last week against San Francisco, which ranks No. 1 in total defense (241 yards per game). Murray has completed 64.2% of his passes with a modest nine touchdowns and four interceptions. The Buccaneers' Jameis Winston has completed 59.3% with 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Winston looks more like a rookie.