Week 11 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate. (Note: Due to the uncertain status of Matthew Stafford, we do not currently have the Cowboys-Lions game up.)

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Fortenbaugh 3-0-1 (21-19-1 on season)
Youmans 1-0-1 (20-15-1)
Kezirian 1-2 (11-15-1)
Bearman 0-2 (9-11-1)
Clay 2-0 (14-7)
Preston Johnson 1-0 (13-18-1)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

1 p.m. games

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 50)

Youmans: Lamar Jackson is running and throwing his way into the MVP race with Russell Wilson. But let's not count out Deshaun Watson, who's at his best on the road. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Texans are 8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS away from home with only two losses by more than four points. Houston is 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a 'dog and 8-2-1 in its past 11 away. Baltimore is only 2-8-1 ATS in its past 10 home games. Trends are not everything, but the betting patterns are established with these teams -- the Texans are among the league's best road teams and the Ravens are among the league's worst home teams, especially when laying points.