NFL Week 11 upset picks: How the Jaguars can beat the Colts

Nick Foles is set to resume quarterback duties for the Jaguars. Mark Brown/Getty Images

The AFC wild-card race has developed into a very tight battle. Based on Football Outsiders' playoff odds simulation, there are currently six AFC teams with between a 15% and 55% chance of making the postseason. Those teams include Pittsburgh (5-4), Buffalo (6-3), Oakland (5-4) and three teams from the tight AFC South: Tennessee (5-5), Indianapolis (5-4) and Jacksonville (4-5). The latter two teams meet this Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in a game both teams desperately need to keep their realistic playoff hopes alive.

If Jacksonville can upset Indianapolis this Sunday, both teams will be 5-5, but the Jaguars (36%) will have better playoff odds than the Colts (25%). If Indianapolis gets the win at home, the Colts' playoff odds go up above 50% while Jacksonville's drop below 10%.

Upset Watch: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

You might be surprised to learn that DVOA ranks the Jaguars as the No. 14 team in the league so far this year. They certainly don't feel like an above-average team, but they have been on a per-play basis.