The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always.
This week, we're highlighting two conference championship games in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread.
2019 ATS record: 17-25 2019
Closing line value: 23-12-7
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Utah Utes (-6.5, 47.5) vs. Oregon Ducks
FPI prediction: Utah by 0.4
In our total efficiency numbers, Utah ranks fifth and Oregon ranks 12th, which means we actually agree with the general perception that Utah has played better than Oregon this season, even when adjusting for strength of opponent.
Note the past tense.