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Where FPI sees an edge vs. the spread: Hope for Georgia, Oregon

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow will face his toughest test of the season against Georgia. Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports

The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always.

This week, we're highlighting two conference championship games in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread.

2019 ATS record: 17-25 2019
Closing line value: 23-12-7

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.


Pac-12 championship

Utah Utes (-6.5, 47.5) vs. Oregon Ducks

FPI prediction: Utah by 0.4

In our total efficiency numbers, Utah ranks fifth and Oregon ranks 12th, which means we actually agree with the general perception that Utah has played better than Oregon this season, even when adjusting for strength of opponent.

Note the past tense.