NFL Week 15 upset picks: How the Bears can beat the Packers

Bears running back David Montgomery should find running room against the Packers. Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire

According to Football Outsiders playoff odds simulations, the Chicago Bears only have a 4.5% chance to make the postseason. But a small chance is better than no chance, and the next step to making a dramatic reversal from 4-6 to a playoff team would be a win in Green Bay this Sunday. Take out the Packers and Chicago's playoff odds almost double to 9.6%. Something is hanging in the balance.

Upset Watch: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

You may remember that we featured the Packers in "Cover Watch" last week, predicting that they couldn't cover a 12.5-point spread against Washington. They didn't. Green Bay's place in "Upset Watch" this week starts from much the same place;