Sunday's NFL divisional round best bets: A number we like on each game

We've reached the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and fantasy's Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's slate of games.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; picks on lines available at time of posting.

Sunday's games

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 51)

Johnson: What interests me most in this matchup is the total after it was bet up from 48.5 at open to the current number of 51. My projection is 50.3, but that takes the entirety of the teams' season data into account. The Chiefs' defense played phenomenally in the final six games, allowing 11.5 points per game (23.9 per game allowed in the 10 games prior). This is a defense that ranked 27th overall and 30th against the run six weeks into the season. Teams were running all over Kansas City to the tune of 148.1 yards per game. In the six-game stretch, however, the Chiefs have given up 95 yards per game on the ground.