Week 13 college football best bets: ND plus UNC equals lots of points

Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (5-3 last week, 29-20 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 14-16), Preston Johnson (2-1, 22-14), David M. Hale (1-1, 14-16) and Seth Walder (0-1, 4-7) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

New Mexico Lobos (-6.5, 51.5) at Utah State Aggies, Thursday, 7 p.m. ET

Walder: No coach, no quarterback, no problem? That's what we're hoping for here. FPI likes the Aggies, and thinks the Lobos ought to be only a half-point favorite on the road. But it's also unaware that Gary Andersen was let go after an 0-3 start and starting quarterback Jason Shelley was dismissed from the program for an unspecified violation of team rules earlier this month. Those seem like pretty valid reasons for the betting line to favor the Lobos more than FPI.

On the other hand, according to ESPN's real plus-minus metric for college football, Shelley was worth -7.2 points per game -- the second-worst RPM of any qualifying college football player in the country. In other words, a change at QB probably isn't the worst thing for the Aggies.

Pick: Utah State +6.5

No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67) at No. 19 North Carolina Tar Heels, Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)