Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week's best bets are listed below in no particular order.
Season results: 85-65 (+15.6 units)
For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our staff roundtable on the topic.
Cordarrelle Patterson over 34.5 rushing yards (-110)
Tampa Bay has a reputation as a dominant run defense, and it has its merits; the Buccaneers have allowed an NFL-low 648 rushing yards to running backs this season and just 3.7 yards per carry, which is third lowest. That said, hitting 35 yards isn't an overly high bar for a player like Patterson. Consider, 100% of the eight backs with nine-plus carries against Tampa Bay this season have at least 33 rushing yards. Those eight backs averaged 62.8 yards on 15.8 carries. Six of the eight reached 56 yards. This is notable, as Patterson has reached nine carries in each of his past five full games, averaging 12.4 during the span. That includes a Week 12 game in which he set career-high marks in carries (16) and rush yards (108). Patterson's rushing yard prop has been below 36 yards four times this season and he's gone over all four times.
Projection: 46 rushing yards