First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers and their families.
Secondly, I'm thankful that underdogs have been barking lately in the NFL, which has coincided with my 5-2 record ATS in Week 11 and 5-3 last week. I'm also thankful for pools and contests -- which we reference a lot in this column -- because I've won a couple of pools the past two weeks after whining about just missing some a few weeks ago (though I do have another close-call story: I finished second for $2,500 in a Week 9-12 straight-up contest at the Aliante Hotel-Casino here in North Las Vegas and would have won the $3,500 first prize and a $2,500 weekly prize if the Giants had held on to beat the Cowboys outright.)
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
But we're mostly looking at ATS results here, and since I didn't have a "Tuesdays With Tuley" column due to the short week and the addition of the College Basketball Vegas Rankings to my menu, here's my weekly update of the leaguewide results:
Week 12 recap
Home: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS (BUF game moved to DET, so no home team)
Favorites: 11-4 SU, 6-9 ATS
Home underdogs: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Season to date after Week 12
Home: 103-68-1 SU, 85-83-4 ATS (three London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 116-55-1 SU, 84-84-4 ATS (4 pick 'em)
Home 'dogs: 17-30 SU, 23-23-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 1-14 SU, 6-8-1 ATS
As regular readers have noticed, this column is appearing early due to the holiday, plus there's three intriguing games to break down on Thanksgiving Day. There's no regular "Thursday Chaser" column, so I've inherited Westgate SuperBook boss Jay Kornegay's analysis of the line movements for those games. I'll incorporate those into the "Wiseguys' view" section for games on turkey day. As far as totals go, Kornegay advises that if you like the overs on the holiday card, you should bet early, because he expects all of those "to rise like our calorie intake."
Last week: 5-3 ATS | 2014 season record: 38-44 ATS (46.3 percent)
Thanksgiving games: 1-1 ATS
Streak for the Cash: I'm no longer eligible to play ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but the site has asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread -- they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em -- but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Wednesday morning.
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -9.5
Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Colts
Public perception: Robert Griffin III has been benched, and that will probably only add to the public already being all over Indy. This is almost certain to be pushed to double digits, especially with the way the Colts blew out the Jaguars 23-3 and covered as 13.5-point favorites.
Wiseguys' view: This line hasn't moved much in the early part of the week, even in the hours after the news came out about Washington benching RG III.
Tuley's Take: This is a tough one.