NFL wild card betting nuggets

Underdogs (all road teams) went 6-2 outright on wild-card weekend the past two seasons.

Seven of the eight games went under the total. Since division realignment in 2002, unders are 44-27-1 (62%) on wild-card weekend, including 10-2 the past three years and 4-0 last year. Dating back to 2007, at least one underdog has won a wild-card round game outright in 11 of the past 13 seasons (no underdog won outright in 2012 and 2016).

Here's the schedule for this weekend.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

Sunday's games

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans, 1:05 p.m. ET

• This is the third time Lamar Jackson has faced Tennessee. Baltimore lost outright as a home favorite the first two times. Last postseason, Tennessee upset Baltimore as a 10-point underdog on the road, the only time Baltimore has ever lost a game as a double-digit favorite. And in Week 11 this year, Tennessee won as a six-point road underdog.

• Jackson is 13-3-2 ATS in his career on the road (15-3 outright). That's the second-best mark among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 starts), behind Teddy Bridgewater (21-3 ATS).

• Tennessee games are 21-4-1 to the over in Ryan Tannehill starts in the regular season. However, last postseason, two of Tennessee's three games went under, with Tannehill averaging 123 passing yards per game and 20 pass attempts per game.

• All five times Tennessee was an underdog this season, the game went over the total.

• Tennessee is the ninth 11-win team to be a home underdog in a wild-card game. The previous eight went 6-2 ATS.

• This is only the third wild-card game ever with a total of 55 or higher. The previous two went over with exactly 73 points. The total of 55 would match the highest in Baltimore history (Week 3 vs. Kansas City, under). It would be tied for Tennessee's second-highest in the past 35 seasons, behind a 55.5 last week against Houston.

• Baltimore has covered six straight games. Last year when it lost to Tennessee, it entered on a four-game cover streak and had been 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-10), 4:40 p.m. ET

• Double-digit favorites are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs since 2011. The only loss came from Baltimore last season against Tennessee (lost outright).

• Chicago has never been more than an 8-point underdog under Matt Nagy. In the past two seasons, Chicago is 0-4 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more (0-3 this season).

• New Orleans has failed to cover three straight playoff games, with all three going under the total. The past two games were outright losses as favorites, including losing as a 7.5-point favorite to Minnesota in last year's wild-card round.

• New Orleans has won six straight meetings since 2011, going 4-2 ATS.

• New Orleans has covered seven of its past nine games, including 6-1 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite.

• New Orleans' past eight playoff games have all been decided by one score. Its past three playoff losses all came on the final play of the game. The last time it won a playoff game by at least 10 points was in the 2011 wild-card round against Detroit (which was also the last time New Orleans was a double-digit favorite in a playoff game).

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6), 8:15 p.m. ET

• Pittsburgh has won 17 straight meetings at home against Cleveland (11-6 ATS). Its last loss was in 2003.

• Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS in its past three games as a favorite.

• Cleveland was 0-6 ATS in division games this season. Cleveland is the first team under the current division format (since 2002) to make the playoffs despite not covering a division game. It was 2-10 ATS in conference games.

• Cleveland was 6-10 ATS this season, tied for the worst cover percentage by a playoff team in the past 15 seasons (2018 Philadelphia, 2013 Green Bay, 2012 Baltimore, 2008 Minnesota). It is the only team to make the playoffs this season with a negative cover margin (-2.75 points per game).

• In the past 40 seasons, when teams meet for the second week in a row in the postseason, the over is 11-3.

• The over is 9-1 in Ben Roethlisberger home playoff starts.

Baker Mayfield is 9-14 ATS on the road in his career.

Saturday's games

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7), 1:05 p.m. ET

• Buffalo covered its final eight games of the regular season -- that's tied for the fourth-longest streak entering the postseason since the 1970 merger. The previous four teams to do it kept their streaks going in their first playoff game. (1992 San Diego: 12 straight, 1985 New England: 11 straight, 1976 Pittsburgh: 9 straight, 2011 New Orleans: 8 straight.)

• Buffalo games are 11-4-1 to the over this season, tied for the third-highest mark in the league.

• Buffalo covered by an average of 5.6 points per game, the highest mark in the league. Buffalo finished 11-5 ATS.

Philip Rivers is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in the postseason (4-4 outright), including 4-0 ATS as an underdog of at least 7 points.

• This is the first time all season Indianapolis is an underdog by more than one point. Indianapolis is the only team in the league that has not been more than a one-point underdog in any game this season. It lost to Cleveland as a one-point underdog in Week 5.

• This is the first time Buffalo is favored to win a playoff game since the 1996 wild-card game against Jacksonville, which it lost as an 8.5-point favorite. That was also Buffalo's last home playoff game.

• Indianapolis' past five playoff games have gone under the total.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5), 4:40 p.m. ET

• Both meetings this season finished at least 16 points under the total. In Week 10 the over/under was 55, and in Week 16 it was 48.

• Los Angeles (N) games were 12-4 to the under this season, the second-highest under mark in the league. New York (N) was 12-3-1.

• Seven of Seattle's past eight games have gone under the total, after six of its first eight games went over.

• Since Pete Carroll took over Seattle in 2010, the under is 15-7 when Los Angeles (N) meets Seattle.

• Seattle has won 11 consecutive postseason games when favored, the third-longest streak since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, behind the Patriots (14 straight from 1996-2007) and the Packers (12 straight from 1966-97). Seattle's last playoff loss when favored was the 2004 wild-card game against Los Angeles (N).

Russell Wilson is 7-0 outright in the playoffs when his team is favored, the most wins without a loss by a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl era. He is 4-2-1 ATS as a playoff favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington, 8:15 p.m. ET

• Tampa Bay is the fourth team since the 1970 merger to be a road favorite of at least 6 points in a playoff game. The previous three all lost outright (2011 Pittsburgh, 2010 New Orleans, 2000 St. Louis).

• Washington is the third team to make the playoffs with a losing record since the 1982 strike. The previous two won and covered in their first playoff games (2014 Carolina, 2010 Seattle).

• This is the most points Washington is an underdog by in an Alex Smith start. Smith hasn't been an underdog of 7 points or more since Week 1 of 2017, when his Kansas City team upset New England as a 9-point underdog.

• Washington is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in Smith starts, and 2-8 outright and 4-5-1 ATS when other quarterbacks start.

• Five straight Washington games have gone under the total.

• Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in prime-time games this season.