Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Forecast will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned in the chase for the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries) and remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games).
The Playoff Forecast is not intended to be a prediction of the selection committee's weekly Top 25, which will be released every Tuesday starting Oct. 28. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the top four come December.
FPI's chance of winning out: 20.5 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 56.6 percent