The Cincinnati Bearcats have reached the all-important top four of the Allstate Playoff Predictor after their win over UCF on Saturday. Luke Fickell's group has not quite reached the promised land, however.
Cincinnati was a 36-33 winner at UCF in Week 10, moving to 8-0 and giving it a 35.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff (up from 12% a week ago) behind only Alabama (94.2%), Ohio State (71.1%) and Notre Dame (59.3%).
Hot on the Bearcats' trail are Clemson (33.5% to reach the playoff), Oregon (26.9%) and USC (14.8%). The Tigers were idle Saturday after their game at Florida State was postponed due to coronavirus concerns. Oregon (38-35 over UCLA) and USC (33-17 over Utah) were both winners.
Cincinnati has up to three games remaining on its schedule -- at Temple next Saturday in Philadelphia, at Tulsa on Dec. 12, and then a likely meeting in the American Athletic Conference championship game on Dec. 19. Winning out will probably not be enough to keep the Bearcats in the top four by itself, with the results of surrounding teams in the Allstate Playoff Predictor playing a key role in Cincinnati's quest to become the first Group of 5 team to reach the CFP.
Alabama (88.8% to 94.2%), Ohio State (61.4 to 71.1%) and Notre Dame (48.7% to 59.3%) all saw their chances to reach the CFP increase with Week 10 results. Other positive movers included aforementioned Cincinnati, USC (4.8% to 14.8%), Northwestern (3.3% to 13.9%) and Texas A&M (6.7% to 11.6%).
On the negative side of the ledger, Clemson (42.8% to 33.5%) saw its chances drop slightly along with Oregon (29.8% to 26.9%), BYU (25.1% to 14.1%) and Florida (17.9% to 12.2%). Wisconsin, which fell to Northwestern, suffered the most precipitous drop among the leaders, falling from 54.9% to reach the playoff to just 9.2%.
A complete look at this week's Allstate Playoff Predictor: