Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe trade fantasy implications

Tommy Pham was traded to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe in a move that has risk and reward built in for both teams. Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire

Outfielder Tommy Pham has averaged better than 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases over the past three seasons, putting him in rare company, but his move to the San Diego Padres in a trade that included Hunter Renfroe could concern some. For one, Pham joins his third team in the past three seasons, and enters his age-32 season. Each of those are potential worrisome signs. Perhaps Pham can continue to steal bases with the volume and success rate he has established, but he is not someone that plays 150 games a season, and he is not Renfroe when it comes to raw power. Renfroe can hit home runs anywhere, like Petco Park or Tropicana Field. Pham still boasts the high walk rate and potential for five-category goodness, and he should bat second in a strong lineup behind Fernando Tatis Jr., but at this point, his above-average stat categories are probably runs and steals.

Why worry about such a terrific player? Well, Pham hits myriad ground balls, more than most, and he still manages to deliver a high BABIP that contributes to his batting average. Pham's run as a big league regular is shorter than most his age, which is good for his legs, but he is unlikely to get faster as he ages, too. Still, Pham hit .273 last season, and .275 the year prior. He has a relatively safe baseline, but if you expect 20 stolen bases, you might be disappointed.

As for Renfroe, acquired by the Rays because he costs less than Pham, he will hit home runs but since everyone is doing that these days, it hardly makes him someone to target. Renfroe struck out more than 31% of his plate appearances last season, and while he walked more than ever, be happy if he hits .250 in 2020. The Rays also presumably liked Renfroe for his right field defense. His throwing arm is a weapon but he has been ordinary against right-handed pitching, so the Rays might platoon him at times. Renfroe belongs on a short list of players that could suddenly hit 40 home runs, regardless of what baseball the sport features, but that alone hardly guarantees him a spot in standard drafts.