The moment we think we know this game, it makes us look silly. And when we start writing columns on the subject, it sneaks up from behind, knocks us to the ground and steals our lunch money -- just out of spite.
But after three weeks of the regular season, some relatively safe assumptions can be made. First, Bill Belichick will continue to dress like your weird uncle for TV audiences of hundreds of thousands. Next, you will be completely and unfailingly creeped out by Jerry Jones in that cell phone commercial upon each and every viewing.
And there is more. Of course, some of it is more subtle -- say, for instance, like knowing which free agents to pick up and which players to drop. Act too soon, and you might dump a valuable player off to a slow start. Wait too long, and you'll be the rub who missed out on another Willie Parker. Here's what to do: