Sometimes it isn't what you know but who you know.
And I don't mean Miffy down at the boutique or Reginald at the country club. I'm talking Duckett and Wilford and Gates down at the goal line. Winning fantasy football is as much about figuring out who is most likely to get the ball in specific situations as it is about matchups and scouting and smack-talking that chump who won last year's league title by a tenth of a point.
To wit: Before scoring on a five-yard catch against Washington, Denver WR Ashley Lelie had only one career reception on plays that started from opponents' 10-yard-line or closer. You catch that? A 6-3 wideout with 136 catches and 11 TDs in three-plus NFL seasons had only one grab from within 10 yards of the goal line -- this for a club that throws a good amount in the red zone. With that sort of track record, we know not only that Lelie isn't getting open near the goal line but that QB Jake Plummer probably isn't looking for him there. (It's possible to find "target" statistics that clearly define these trends, but you usually have to pay for them and they can be tough to hunt down.)