Players with best scoring chances

Reggie Bush had a strong fantasy performance in Week 1 against Minnesota. Tim Fuller/USA TODAY Sports

With one week of the NFL's regular season in the books, savvy fantasy football owners are left scrambling through box scores, stat sheets and reaction articles in an attempt to make the best of their opportunities on the waiver wire and in the trade market.

A piece of advice: Don't waste your time on red zone data.

As demonstrated in both of our preseason looks at opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD), red zone data is badly flawed. Instead, our oTD metric -- which weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity -- is a more refined way to discern how likely a player is to find the end zone.

So, what can oTD tell us after Week 1? Well for starters, big things could be ahead for Reggie Bush and Larry Fitzgerald.


Through one week of play, Lions tailbacks Bush (1.0 oTD) and Joique Bell (0.9) both rank in the top three of rushing oTD. Despite failing to find paydirt, Bush had a carry from the 1-yard line and two carries from 7 yards out. Bell, meanwhile, carried the ball only six times but managed to score on distances of 1 and 2 yards out. Considering that Bush is the clear lead back and did get a carry at the goal line, he's the better bet for touchdowns going forward -- assuming he stays healthy.