The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 14 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
David Johnson caught a touchdown on Sunday, which marks the first time he has found the end zone since Week 6. If you're wondering if this means Johnson is "back" as a viable fantasy starter, the answer is a resounding "no." Johnson played 36% of the offensive snaps and was held to 43 yards on five touches in the game. He remained well behind starter Kenyan Drake, who soaked up 67 yards on 14 touches while playing 64% of the snaps. Chase Edmonds was also more involved, adding one carry and a pair of targets on 10 snaps. Drake is an RB2 option against Cleveland this week. Johnson remains a handcuff.
Austin Hooper returned from injury and played 64% of the snaps against Carolina on Sunday. Hooper actually played 72% of the snaps during the first three quarters, but only 36% in the fourth quarter with Atlanta way ahead on the scoreboard. Hooper was held to two catches for 32 yards, but was targeted six times. Hooper, who was playing 83% of the snaps and averaging 7.9 targets per game prior to his Week 10 injury, will be a candidate for a larger workload in Week 15 and should remain locked into lineups. Hooper has finished only three of 10 weeks outside the top eight tight ends in fantasy points and Sunday marked his first finish worse than 14th.
Marquise Brown's boom/bust rookie campaign continues as the speedy receiver has been limited to minus-1 yard on five targets over the past two weeks. That, after he scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 12. Brown has now scored at least one touchdown in four games, but has fallen short of 50 receiving yards in six of his other seven outings. He has posted three top-15 fantasy weeks, but has also finished 49th or worst six times. Operating in Baltimore's low-volume, but high-scoring passing attack, Brown is a low-floor, touchdown-dependent flex in deeper leagues.
John Brown was held to 26 receiving yards on eight targets on Sunday and has now fallen short of 40 yards in three consecutive games. We knew a tough schedule was coming for Buffalo and that has proved to be an issue for Brown against Denver, Dallas and Baltimore. Life won't be any easier on the road the next two weeks against tough Pittsburgh and New England pass defenses. Brown remains an every-down player and handled eight targets on Sunday, which keeps him in the WR3 discussion, but fantasy's No. 18 wide receiver shouldn't be considered a must-start down the stretch.
Ian Thomas put up a 5-57-1 receiving line while matching a career high with 10 targets against Atlanta on Sunday. Thomas played 85% of the snaps with Greg Olsen sidelined with a concussion. The strong "handcuff" production is hardly a surprise after Thomas filled in for Olsen with the sixth-most fantasy points among tight ends during Weeks 13-17 last season. Thomas posted a 25-246-2 receiving line on 31 targets during that stretch. Olsen could be back in Week 15, but if not, Thomas can be considered a top-15 play against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Mitch Trubisky threw for 244 yards, ran for 63 yards and totaled four touchdowns against Dallas in Week 14. Trubisky has now produced at least 18 fantasy points in six of 12 games this season, including four of his past five. Of course, Trubisky has also finished the other six weeks outside the top 21 in fantasy points at the position. Trubisky's improved production is enough to put him back in the weekly streaming discussion, but we should remain leery of his league-worst 9.6 yards per completion rate and extremely poor 6.2 yards per attempt. He isn't a good starting option at Green Bay in Week 15.
Joe Mixon had one of his best games of the season on Sunday, registering 186 yards and one touchdown on 26 touches. Mixon now has 15-plus carries in six consecutive games and nine of his past 11. He also has scored four touchdowns in his past four games. Mixon continues to handle a massive workload -- he's top 10 at running back in both snaps and touches -- which keeps him locked into the RB2 mix. He will need to be downgraded against a New England defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs this week, but Mixon is not a must-bench with 20 touches likely on the table.
David Njoku returned from injured reserve on Sunday, but was limited to only 38% of the offensive snaps. Stephen Carlson played 73% and Ricky Seals-Jones 19% with Demetrius Harris sidelined. Njoku was targeted three times and produced one catch for 4 yards. The third-year tight end produced a solid 4-37-1 receiving line in his only full game this season back in Week 1, but he won't be a reliable TE1 until he returns to an every-down role. Consider him a high-risk/high-reward lottery ticket against the Cardinals' league-worst defense against tight ends this week.
Michael Gallup put up a strong 6-109-0 receiving line on 10 targets against Chicago in Week 14. The big night brings the second-year receiver to five top-30 fantasy weeks this season. Gallup has shown a solid floor thanks to a generous 22% target share. He's averaging 8.5 targets per game and has handled at least six in 10 of 11 games. Gallup remains a viable WR3 and should benefit from Jalen Ramsey shadowing Amari Cooper in Week 15.
Drew Lock completed 22 of 27 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns, adding 15 yards with his legs in a shocking upset at Houston on Sunday. Though he tossed a pair of early touchdowns to Courtland Sutton, Lock posted an ugly 4.8 yards per attempt in his NFL debut in Week 13, so Sunday's performance was a much-needed step in the right direction. Denver heads to Kansas City on Sunday and, while Lock isn't yet safe enough to consider starting, the likes of Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and perhaps Noah Fant are viable fantasy options.
With T.J. Hockenson on injured reserve, Logan Thomas played 58% of the snaps, Jesse James 52% and Isaac Nauta 9% in Sunday's loss at Minnesota. Thomas caught two of four targets for 24 yards, James hauled in one of two targets for 23 yards and Nauta added 3 yards on his only target. Even if Matthew Stafford returns, this underwhelming committee is well off the fantasy radar, even in two-tight end leagues.
Despite a strong matchup at home against a struggling Washington team, Aaron Rodgers was held to 195 yards and one touchdown on Sunday. Rodgers tossed four touchdowns against the Giants in Week 13, but has combined for three touchdowns while averaging 173.3 passing yards during his other four games since Week 9. Rodgers sits eighth at quarterback in fantasy points, but has been extremely boom/bust with four weekly finishes better than fourth, but also eight finishes of 19th or worse. Rodgers is best left on benches this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
With Will Fuller V sidelined on Sunday, Keke Coutee saw his highest target total (eight) since last season's wild-card playoff game. The second-year slot receiver converted the usage into five catches for 68 yards. Despite the decent day, Coutee has yet to produce a weekly fantasy finish better than 30th this season, failing to reach 12 fantasy points in a single game. Coutee figures to revert to the bench once Fuller is back in the lineup with DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills. Coutee should be on rosters only in dynasty leagues.
Parris Campbell returned from injury on Sunday, but was limited to 51% of the offensive snaps before going down with a broken foot that will cost him the rest of the season. The rest of the Colts' wide receiver snap shares were as follows: 100% for Zach Pascal, 88% for Marcus Johnson, 22% for Ashton Dulin and 10% for Chad Williams. Johnson and Pascal each reached seven targets and are the only viable flex options in deeper leagues. Campbell, meanwhile, sees an underwhelming rookie campaign that included only one weekly fantasy finish better than 57th come to an end. He'll be a 2020 sleeper as a potential second-year breakout player.
DJ Chark caught nine of 10 targets for 75 yards during Sunday's blowout loss to the Chargers. It was a nice bounce-back day from a player who had failed to reach 48 yards or score a touchdown during his previous two games. Chark has now reached 16 fantasy points in seven of 13 games this season and is fantasy's No. 8 scoring wide receiver. Armed with a 22% target share (8.1 per game) and with Gardner Minshew back under center, Chark remains a fine WR2 play. Assuming he recovers from his left foot injury, Chark should obviously be fired up against Oakland's struggling defense this week.
Spencer Ware made his 2019 debut with the Chiefs on Sunday and the veteran back shockingly paced Kansas City backs in snaps (28 of a possible 70). LeSean McCoy played 22 and Darwin Thompson handled 18. Ware was not effective, totaling 2 yards on six touches. McCoy managed 44 yards on 12 touches and Thompson racked up 33 yards on eight touches. This backfield has become a major headache and Damien Williams could be back in the fold as early as Week 15. None of these backs are safe enough to start against Denver in Week 15 and can be dropped in most formats.
The Chargers put up a season-high 45 points on Sunday and the offense was led by yet another elite performance by Austin Ekeler. Despite splitting 56 backfield snaps right down the middle with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler put up 101 yards on eight carries and 112 yards and one touchdown on five targets. Gordon was good in his own right with 84 yards and a score on 17 touches. Ekeler has now produced at least 16.7 fantasy points in three consecutive games despite working behind Gordon. In fact, Ekeler now sits seventh at running back in fantasy points since Gordon's return in Week 5 (Gordon is 13th during the same span). As has been the case for a while now, both backs belong in weekly lineups.
The Rams crushed the Seahawks on Sunday night and did so despite Cooper Kupp playing a much lesser role. Los Angeles' slot receiver was on the field for only 19 (or 28%) of the 66 offensive snaps. That's a career low, which is saying something considering it includes games he left injured. Kupp entered Week 14 having been on the field for 86% of the offensive snaps this season, including 87% of pass plays. Kupp still managed a decent fantasy day, catching all four of his targets for 45 yards and one touchdown, but the massive dip in usage is concerning going forward. Robert Woods has emerged as the Rams' No. 1 target and now easily the best play among the team's pass-catchers. The game script figures to dictate more passing at Dallas this week, so Kupp is a candidate for more playing time, but he's now best viewed as a borderline WR3 or flex.
DeVante Parker made it 17 snaps and Albert Wilson 15 snaps before leaving with injuries during Sunday's loss at the Jets. The injuries led to expanded roles for Isaiah Ford (75% snap share) and Mack Hollins (14%) behind Allen Hurns (78%), though Miami also leaned more heavily on multiple-tight end sets. Ford had what was easily a career day with a 6-92-0 receiving line on nine targets. The 2017 seventh-round pick entered the game with two receptions for 9 yards on seven career targets. Even if Parker and Wilson miss time, Ford will not be a reliable flex option in Week 15, even against a weak Giants secondary. Hurns would be your best dart throw after he reached six targets for the third time in four games on Sunday.
A shoulder injury cut Dalvin Cook's Week 13 short, but the young back was busy in his return to action on Sunday with 75 yards and one touchdown on 20 touches. With Minnesota nursing a double-digit lead throughout the game, Cook was limited to 46% of the snaps, which allowed Alexander Mattison 16 touches himself. Cook has finished only one of his past five outings as a top-12 fantasy back, but he also has finished a week worse than 16th only twice this season. Cook is, of course, a strong RB1 against the Chargers in Week 15.
Sony Michel played nine snaps and was limited to 9 yards on six carries against the Chiefs on Sunday. James White, meanwhile, played 37 snaps, with Rex Burkhead playing 18 and Brandon Bolden one. Michel was a top-20 fantasy running back and had found the end zone six times during Weeks 1-7, but he hasn't cleared 8.5 fantasy points in a game or found the end zone in six games since. A nonfactor as a receiver (10 receptions in 12 games), Michel requires heavy rushing volume and touchdowns in order to produce RB2 numbers. He's not getting it right now and shouldn't be close to lineups.
Alvin Kamara played 76% of the snaps on Sunday in a game that saw the Saints score 46 points. And yet Kamara was still a major disappointment in fantasy. Kamara was held to 25 yards on 13 carries and 18 yards on six targets. Kamara has now gone eight consecutive games without a touchdown, though Sunday's 8.3 fantasy points were his fewest since he had 7.0 back in Week 2 and his second fewest since Week 5 of the 2018 season. Kamara entered Week 14 averaging 18.0 fantasy points per game and remains the clear feature back in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Keep him locked into lineups.
Darius Slayton hauled in five of seven targets for 154 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Eagles' embarrassing perimeter corner defense on Monday Night Football. It was Slayton's second-biggest fantasy performance of his career, which is saying something, considering it was only his 11th professional game. Slayton has now scored exactly two touchdowns in three games, all of which have come since Week 8. The flip side is that he's posted receiving lines of 3-32-0, 2-28-0, 1-6-0, 4-67-0 and 6-44-0 in the other five games during his past eight outings. Slayton trailed both Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in snaps on Monday but has now handled seven-plus targets in four-consecutive games and very well could be emerging into New York's No. 1 wide receiver. Fantasy's No. 23-scoring wide receiver since his debut in Week 3, Slayton should be in lineups against the Dolphins this week.
Le'Veon Bell missed Sunday's game with an illness. Bilal Powell was the feature back in his place, posting a 19-74-0 rushing line and adding 14 yards on three targets while playing 80% of the snaps. Ty Montgomery played 32% of the snaps and racked up 61 yards on 12 touches. Bell is a good bet to return in Week 15, but if he remains sidelined, Powell should be considered a flex option in a tough matchup against a Ravens defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Josh Jacobs was sidelined with a shoulder injury on Sunday, which left Oakland with a DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard backfield committee. Washington had the bigger day, playing 63% of the snaps, which helped him to 53 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries, as well as six receptions for 43 yards on seven targets. Richard put up 28 yards on seven carries and 18 yards on three targets. It's very possible Jacobs will miss additional time, so Sunday reinforced that Washington is the primary handcuff here. He's worth an add on waivers, whereas Richard should be considered only in very deep PPR leagues. Oakland backs will be upgraded big-time this week against a Jacksonville defense that was annihilated by Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler this past week and has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Boston Scott enjoyed a career night on Monday Night Football, rushing for 59 yards and one touchdown on 10 carries and catching all six of his targets for 69 yards. Scott played 37 offensive snaps, which matched his career total entering the game. The strong performance should lead to more work for the 2018 sixth-round pick, but Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard (who appears close to a return) remain ahead of him on the depth chart. Scott should be rostered in deeper dynasty leagues but is no more than an end-of-bench option in season-long leagues.
Diontae Johnson caught six of eight targets for 60 yards and one touchdown in Arizona on Sunday. He also returned a punt for a touchdown. The rookie was on the field for 68% of the snaps and doubled the next closest Steelers player in targets (James Washington had four). The big day from Johnson wasn't completely unexpected considering he entered the game with five-plus targets in four straight games and against Arizona's struggling pass defense, but that doesn't mean the production is sustainable. Johnson also entered the week with no more than three catches, 29 yards or 5.9 fantasy points during his previous three games. Johnson has posted double-digit fantasy points during one of his past five and two of his past eight games. Pittsburgh is leaning on its defense and a run-heavy offense under Devlin Hodges, which makes its wide receivers extremely risky plays. Johnson and Washington belong on benches this week against a terrific Bills pass defense that has allowed only seven touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
The headache that is the 49ers' backfield reared its ugly head again in Week 14. Raheem Mostert picked up where he left off in Week 13 with 69 yards on 10 carries, 40 yards on two targets and a pair of touchdowns while playing 60% of the snaps. Matt Breida played 19% of the snaps in his return from injury and ran for 54 yards on six carries, adding 4 yards on his lone target. The biggest surprise was Tevin Coleman being limited to three carries for 6 yards on 16% of the snaps. Kyle Shanahan's hot hand approach makes anyone in this backfield hard to trust, but Mostert is currently your best flex option of the group.
Rashaad Penny went down with an injury on his first snap of Sunday's game and is expected to miss the rest of the season. With Penny sidelined, Chris Carson returned to workhorse duties, playing 50 of 62 possible snaps. Carson carried the ball 15 times, ran a route on 26 of the team's 41 pass plays and was targeted four times. C.J. Prosise (one carry and no targets on nine snaps) and rookie Travis Homer (zero snaps) were relative nonfactors. Carson is set up for 20-plus touches this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (24) and fantasy points (390) to running backs this season. He's a candidate for one of his best games of the season.
O.J. Howard caught four passes for 73 yards on five targets against the Colts on Sunday. After reaching 60 receiving yards once during his first eight games this season, Howard has hit the mark in back-to-back outings. He reached five targets in both games after doing so twice during Weeks 1-12. Howard has found the end zone only once this season and is far from a sure bet to continue his recent surge in production. That said, he's a much more attractive streaming option with Mike Evans expected to miss at least one week, if not the rest of the season. Howard is still best viewed as a TE2 most weeks and on deck is a matchup against a Lions defense that has been good against tight ends this season.
A.J. Brown caught five of seven targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns against Oakland's weak pass defense on Sunday. Brown's boom/bust rookie season continues, as he has reached 24 fantasy points in three different games, but has 12 or fewer during his other nine outings. In fact, Brown's past five games have produced fantasy point totals of 12, 3, 24, 8 and 32, respectively. Brown looks legit and has emerged as Ryan Tannehill's top target, but he also has fallen short of six targets during four of his past six games. Brown obviously has big upside, but the floor is low enough that he's not a must-start every week. That being said, he does get an upgrade to WR3 territory with a Houston defense on deck that has allowed three-plus passing touchdowns in seven of its past nine games and that was lit up by Drew Lock on Sunday.
Derrius Guice went down with an injury during the second quarter of Sunday's loss in Green Bay. With Guice sidelined for the second half, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson each played 46% of the snaps, and Wendell Smallwood was on the field for 7%. Peterson posted a 20-76-1 rushing line for the game and Thompson managed a 7-43-0 receiving line on eight targets. Peterson wasn't targeted and Thompson didn't have a carry. Guice is out at least for Week 15, but neither replacement back will be a strong RB2 option against the Eagles.