IBM Smart Lineup Decisions for NFL Week 10

It's not unusual for Terry McLaurin to stretch his potential, especially against a vulnerable Detroit Lions defense. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Fantasy football is an emotional game and that's a large part in why we love it. But "love" isn't the only emotion that comes with this game ... the flip side is just as strong of an emotion. What if I told you that it was possible to take the emotion out of the decision making while retaining the sheer joy that comes with watching the games every week? That's where IBM Insights comes in, as they use Watson AI to break down all of the content you're consuming and then some. And by "some", I mean every inch of the interwebs. Below are the highlights for NFL Week 10 - good and bad. Now all you have to do is avoid the bust players and watch the points pile up!


Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Last week was an impressive showing from the rookie, but his debut was ... well, forgettable. And you know what? That's ok, that's what most rookies do. The success of Justin Herbert this season makes it easy to forget that not everyone walks onto an NFL field ready to produce on a consistent basis. There are going to be a few more spike weeks from Tua and they probably happen soon, but this is a tough spot. The Chargers rank second best in terms of limiting yards after the catch this season, so this spot hardly looks like last week's against a Cardinals defense that is third worst in that metric. The sustainability of Tagovailoa as a fantasy asset will likely be tied to his willingness to run, but I need more than a one-week sample size to prove to me that he is fully confident in his health after rushing for just 17 yards in his final collegiate season.

Watson's Insight: Tagovailoa walks into this matchup with a bust chance that is 18.3 percentage points greater than his boom chance, the fourth largest difference among Week 10 qualifiers.

Running Back

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Football Team

Swift's carries this season have been valuable ones and he gets a Washington team that is allowing the 10th most rushing yards per game this season (128.6). Adrian Peterson is going to get some touches, but considering that he doesn't have a carry gaining more than 10 yards since September, it's not a leap of faith to say that more work is going to continue to go the way of Swift. The rookie has caught at least three balls in five straight games (and in seven of eight this season) and thus he provides a solid PPR floor with the game breaking upside that we've seen at times.

Watson's Insight: Among the 114 players this week with a 10-plus, Swift is the "safest" play this week, as his floor is a mere 16.8% below his ESPN projection.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions

One of the game's promising talents, McLaurin already has four "boom" performances under his belt and faces a Lions team that is allowing a touchdown on 6.4% of opponent's passes, the fifth highest rate. There is zero concern about volume, as McLaurin's eight game streak of seven-plus targets is the longest in the NFL this season and what the 25 year old has sacrificed in yards per catch this season from last, he has more than made up for with a spike in catch rate (up to 64.9% from 62.4%). Will the offense look a little different with Alex Smith under center? Maybe, but the centerpiece of this offense is here to stay ... for Week 10 and many years to come.

Watson's Insight: McLaurin leads all qualified players with a 28% boom chance.

Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Did you have any idea that Reynolds has 17 targets over his past two games? Or that he has a 20-plus yard reception in five of his past seven? Those are positive trends for a dart throw going into any matchup, let alone one against the most forgiving secondary in the NFL. With an over/under in the mid-50's, this should be a game you want exposure to if you're hurting to fill your WR3/flex spot and Reynolds is 98% available. There's one sneaky receiver I like more this week, but Reynolds is very much on my radar.

Watson's Insight: Reynolds ceilings is 9.9 points higher than his ESPN projection, the largest gap at the position this week.

Tight End

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

None of the counting numbers look great for Henry of late, but relax, the fantasy points are coming. He has an end zone target in three of his past four games, a role that holds value against the 10th worst red zone defense in the NFL. The Chargers boast the eighth most efficient offense in terms of yards per play over the past month, so it's wise to trust the process with Henry at a position that has so few "sure" things. Don't let his recent struggles impact your decision making moving forward: you're playing Henry.

Watson's Insight: Henry's projection grades out as average this week, but his ceiling is closer to the elite class with Darren Waller than it is the second tier of "hope they score" tight ends.