IBM Smart Lineup Decisions for NFL Week 11

MVP repeat? Probably not, but don't overthink playing Lamar Jackson this weekend. AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Fantasy football is an emotional game and that's a large part in why we love it. But "love" isn't the only emotion that comes with this game ... the flip side is just as strong of an emotion.

What if I told you that it was possible to take the emotion out of the decision making while retaining the sheer joy that comes with watching the games every week?

That's where IBM Insights comes in, as they use Watson AI to break down all of the content you're consuming and then some. And by "some", I mean every inch of the interwebs. Below are the highlights for NFL Week 11 - good and bad. Now all you have to do is avoid the bust players and watch the points pile up!


Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans

Investment bias is a funny thing. If you roster Jackson, you were all in this summer and used one of your first two picks on him. Has he been what you paid for? Not even close, but I'd encourage you to think of him as chicken parm. Bear with me. Have you ever overspent on a parm and while the dish didn't live up to expectations, you still left the table satisfied? Jackson finished last week as a top-8 quarterback for the fourth time this season, so while a 2019 repeat isn't happening, let's not act like he's a complete lost cause. He has 40 rush attempts over the past three weeks and his passing efficiency really isn't that much different than last season ... remove the Cincinnati stinker and Jackson is completing 66.2% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt (2019: 66.1% and 7.8). With the rushing boosting his floor, Jackson is set to impress in a game where Baltimore's implied total is 27.5 points.

Watson's Insight: Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback with a higher Week 11 floor than Jackson.

Running Back

Damien Harris, New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Harris trails only Alvin Kamara and James Conner in terms of ceiling points above expectation at the position this week. You know what else he ranks third in? Rushing yards over the past three weeks (294). Yep, that'll work against the league's worst run defense (167.4 yards allowed per game). The lack of a role in the pass game is less than ideal, but with the Patriots being road favorites, this profiles as a potential smash spot for the talented Harris.

Watson's Insight: Harris' ceiling this week is 67.1% higher than his current ESPN projection.

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

A pair of deep receivers with similar skill sets but very different outlooks highlight the Week 10 slate. On the wrong end of the spectrum is Corey Davis, who faces a top-10 Ravens defense in terms of yards per deep completion this season. Why does that matter? Davis' production is obviously sporadic (he followed his best game in Week 8 with his worst game one week later) and his average depth of target is up over 39% in Weeks 8-10 from where it stood through seven weeks. Baltimore is coming off their blitz heaviest game of the season (73.7% of drop backs!) and if that aggression continues, it's tough to imagine Ryan Tannehill having time to get Davis the ball in productive spots.

Watson's Insight: Davis' bust potential is 18.1 percentage points above his boom potential, the greatest difference at the position and fourth highest overall.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Remember that top-10 Ravens defense I mentioned seconds ago? Well, the Jags aren't that. Not even close. They are surrendering over 31 yards per deep completion this season. That's not only the worst mark in the NFL this season, it's a big Claypool game away from being one of the five worst rates this decade! Now, I do prefer the stability of both Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster this weekend for the more narrow range of outcomes, but considering Claypool has nearly as many deep targets as the two of them combined (20-18), it's no wonder that the DFS community and big under dogs in season long are locking the rookie in this weekend.

Watson's Insight: Claypool's boom potential is 18.8 percentage points above his bust potential, the greatest difference among all qualified flex players this week.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

After targeting Goedert just once on 22 routes in his Week 8 return to action, the Eagles looked at their promising tight end six times on his 28 routes last weekend, a promising trend when it comes to chasing volume at this position. The Browns allow opponents to complete 76.2% of passes thrown between the numbers and the hash marks (fifth highest), a spot where Goedert can make noise for this struggling pass game void of consistent threats. He has as good a shot as anyone to top the second tier of tight ends this week and could prove to be a week winner given the state of the position.

Watson's Insight: Goedert leads all qualified tight ends this week with a ceiling projection that is 3.2 points above his ESPN projection.

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