Picking the Conference Championships

I was driving from Jersey to the home office in Bristol the other day and listening to Mike and Mike on the radio. Greeny was making the case that, right now, Donovan McNabb is playing as well as he's ever played and that he's also in the midst of a Hall of Fame career. He had the numbers to back it up: Five NFC title games in 10 seasons. One Super Bowl. Already more career touchdown passes than Troy Aikman, while throwing more than 50 fewer picks. In the next year or so, Greeny went on to say, if McNabb stays healthy, he'll catch Steve Young in career passing yards. All of this was surprising. I've never thought of McNabb as an all-time great.

While Greeny was making McNabb's case I kept thinking to myself, Why isn't he mentioning Kurt Warner? He's got MVP awards. A Super Bowl title. The greatest narrative in football history and numbers that will go down in history. If McNabb deserves a bust, doesn't Warner? Finally, after a couple segments promoting McNabb, Greeny said it: "McNabb will be going up against another likely Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner this weekend."

That, my friends, is what makes the NFC title game such a hard game to bet on. You've got two QBs who can play as well as anyone who has ever played the game. Only they are the same two QBs who make you squirm and wonder, how can anyone consider these guys two of the greatest QBs who ever played the game?

Too bad you didn't come here to watch me wriggle my way out of making a pick against the spread, because I could try to avoid it all day. But, since you insist, here goes: