The early Week 11 NFL betting trends 

November, 15, 2011

Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.

LAS VEGAS -- The Breeders' Cup is behind us, but we have our own horse race going on in the Hilton SuperContest.

No one is going wire-to-wire this year, as it's more a case of contenders chugging along only to have one bolt to the front and then drop back, as a new contender inherits the lead, and so on. It's going to come down to who has the best stretch run in this 17-furlong, er, 17-week race.

Sans Souci was the pacesetter through the first seven weeks, and then we saw Feral Child and Iced Tea move in tandem to the front. Now, armed with a 5-0 burst in Week 10, Pagermager is the new leader with a record of 34-13-3 (72.3 percent) against the spread, which is good for 35.5 contest points. Each win is worth one point and pushes are worth 1/2.

Pagermager rode the two longshot winners of the week, the Arizona Cardinals versus the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks versus the Baltimore Ravens, along with the New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams and New England Patriots as slight underdogs (though the Saints were pick-em versus the Atlanta Falcons in the SuperContest lines).

Texasex91 is now sitting a length back in second place with 34.5 points after going 4-1 this weekend. Feral Child and Iced Tea both went 2-3 to settle back into a tie for third with 34 points. They both had a chance to pass Pagermager if their plays on the New York Jets had beaten Pagermager's Patriots pick.

Feral Child and Iced Tea's week was more typical of SuperContest players as a whole (making Pagermager and Texasex91's moves all the more impressive). Consensus plays went 6-10 ATS and just 2-3 with the top five plays. The two most selected teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, covered the spread, but the Buffalo Bills, New York Giants and Falcons failed to come through for their bettors. For the year, the consensus plays are 71-70-5 with the subset of the top five weekly plays at 24-23-3. Neither are winning against the 10 percent vig. All plays of all players are also right around .500 at 10,180-10,094-771 (50.2 percent).

Where the money is going in Week 11?

Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wise guys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website,