The early Week 13 NFL betting trends 

November, 29, 2011

Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.

LAS VEGAS -- As more and more people become interested in the Hilton SuperContest -- as evidenced by the record 517 entrants this year and more people following the action in this weekly report -- two questions keep coming up: What percentage does the champion usually hit? And what does it take to finish in the money?

The champion usually comes in right around 65 percent to 67 percent and, in fact, the Hilton pays a $10,000 bonus if the champ hits more than 67 percent after pushes are disregarded. In the SuperContest, winning picks against the spread are worth one point and pushes are worth half a point, so, with five plays a week in the 17-week contest, the champ will usually end up with around 56.5 points.

To finish in the money, you need around 51 points (60 percent of the 85 plays). Basically, that means you need to average a 3-2 week every week over the course of the season. If you have a 2-3 week, you better have a 4-1 week to make up for it. If you go 1-4, you probably need to roll a 5-0 at some point. If you crash and burn with an 0-5, good luck overcoming that. A solid 60 percent gets you in the money and then the top contenders obviously exceed that while avoiding the disastrous weeks.

Pagermager is the leader after Week 12 with a record of 42-14-4 (75 percent) for 44 contest points and has built a three-point lead over former leader Sans Souci, who is 39-17-4 for 41 points. Purple Sage has 40.5 points at 40-19-1 as the top three are all above the 67 percent bonus threshold. Texasex91 is in fourth place with 40 points, Feral Child is in fifth with 39.5 points and Iced Tea and Daynamites are tied for sixth with 39 points and are the last entrants within five games of the lead with five weeks (25 plays) to go.

Here are Pagermager's weekly records: 4-0-1, 4-1, 2-3, 4-1, 3-1-1, 2-3, 3-1-1, 2-3, 5-0, 5-0, 4-0-1, 4-1. As you can see, Pagermager has avoided the 1-4 or dreaded 0-5 weeks with 2-3 being his worst score. After Week 8, he was 24-13-3 and tied for 11th place, but then rolled back-to-back 5-0 weeks to move into first place after Week 10. We would usually see a regression to the mean after that, but he's instead gone 8-1-1 the past two weeks to increase his lead. We'll see if Pagermager can coast to victory or if someone can make a run at him the rest of the way.

Overall, the SuperContest field as a whole hovers around .500. Consensus plays in Week 12 went 7-8-1 against the spread and are 82-85-8 in all games. The top-five consensus did go 3-1-1 to improve to 28-27-5, though there were two teams tied for the No. 5 spot (Lions plus-6.5 versus the Packers and Bengals minus-7 versus the Browns) and they both lost, so if you count both that makes the overall record 28-28-5. All plays by all contestants are 12,458-12,329-1,328 (50.3 percent).

Where is the money going in Week 13?

Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website,