The early Week 14 NFL betting trends 

December, 6, 2011

Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.

LAS VEGAS -- Pagermager is proving to be elusive in more ways than one.

Pagermager, the alias of the leader of the famed Hilton SuperContest leader, is 46-15-4 (75.4 percent) against the spread through 13 weeks of the 17-week NFL season. He took over the lead after back-to-back 5-0 marks in Weeks 9 and 10 and has gone 12-2-1 since, so he's 22-2-1 (91.7 percent) the past five weeks as he's opened up a four-game lead over his nearest competitors with four weeks to play.

Last Tuesday, I reached out to Jay Kornegay, the Hilton's vice president of race & sports book operations, to contact Pagermager for an interview. The Hilton allows entrants to use aliases in the contest standings and doesn't release their identities without permission. After talking with Pagermager, Kornegay texted me back to say: "Pagermager declined. Nice guy. Just not now. After season, yes."

OK, so we learned that Pagermager is male, but that was all. I was disappointed, but I totally understand his reluctance to be interviewed at this time. After all, I featured former leader Sans Souci after Week 6 and the team proceeded to go 2-3 the next week to lose the lead and 1-4 the following week.

The Sans Souci team has recovered from that nicely to be at 42-19-4 for 44 contest points to be in a second-place tie with Texasex91, but they probably still blame that interview for bad karma.

So, I was a little surprised Monday when Kornegay called to say Pagermager had a change of heart and would be calling me within the half hour. He had gone 4-0 with his plays in Week 13 (Seahawks on Thursday night, Titans, Chiefs and Cardinals -- all underdogs that won their games outright) to build that four-game lead and had the Jaguars on "Monday Night Football "to potentially open up a five-game advantage.

No call came.

And the Jaguars lost on Monday night, so I'm not holding my breath over that interview.

Where is the money going in Week 14?

Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website,