The early Week 16 NFL betting trends 

December, 13, 2011

Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.

LAS VEGAS -- The Hilton SuperContest has a new leader, same as the old leader.

If you haven't checked the standings since Week 6, you might not think anything has changed as Sans Souci, who was the early season pacesetter, has regained the lead after going to 4-1 in Week 15. Sans Souci, the alias of a group of four Las Vegas friends that was featured in this space after Week 6, has an overall record of 50-21-4 (70.4 percent) for 52 contest points, as wins are worth one and pushes worth half a point.

Sans Souci has gone 8-2 over the past two weeks (and 18-5-2 the past five), but needed previous leader Pagermager to come back to the pack, as he was an unbelievable 46-15-4 (75.4 percent) through 13 weeks. Pagermager obliged by going 2-3 in Week 14 and then suffered his first 1-4 week this past Sunday to open the door for Sans Souci.

Pagermager is still a game back in second place at 49-22-4 (69 percent), but is only a half-game ahead of the surging Texasex91 at 50.5, after he went 4-0-1 in Week 15.

With two weeks to go -- including Week 17, which can lead to wacky lines and results with some teams resting starters for the playoffs, etc. -- a lot can happen in the race for the $310,200 first-place prize.

SuperContest deadline goes as written in rules

The other big SuperContest news this week is the deadline for this upcoming weekend's games. As most followers of the contest know, the weekly deadline for submission of plays is 11 a.m. Pacific time Saturdays with the caveat that if someone uses a Thursday game that they have to put in all five selections by kickoff of that game.

With Christmas falling on Sunday this year, the NFL moved the bulk of its schedule to Saturday. Many people have assumed that the Hilton would move up its deadline since the early games start at 10 a.m. Saturday, an hour before the deadline, but here is how SuperContest Rule 8 is written:

"Contestants must submit their weekly selections to the SuperBook by 11:00 am each Saturday morning, except when contestant wishes to use any game that starts before this deadline. If a contestant wishes to use any game that is scheduled to start before this deadline, their weekly selections must be submitted prior to the start of those games."

Jay Kornegay, the Hilton's Vice President of Race and Sports Book Operations, said there is no change to that rule. "Players wanting to use those games will have to have their plays in by the 10 a.m. kickoffs," he said before adding, "I would advise anyone to not wait until the last minute because there are 10 games kicking off at that time and even though it's Christmas Eve I expect we'll have long lines like we usually do on NFL Sundays."

Hilton sports book supervisor Jeff Sherman points out that if anyone misses the 10 a.m. deadline, they'll be forced to use a play each on the five remaining games on the schedule: three Saturday afternoon games, plus the Sunday and Monday night games.

The sheets with all the players' selections (and posting of the plays on sites like and the forums at will take place at their usual times between 11 a.m. and noon Saturday. Week 17 won't have any of this confusion as that whole schedule is being played on Sunday, Jan. 1.

Where is the money going in Week 16?

Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wise guys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website,