Where value lies in Kansas-Kentucky 

April, 2, 2012

LAS VEGAS -- If you're looking for the best bet to make in Monday night's NCAA title game, you've come to the wrong place.

Yep, you read that right. I'm committing the cardinal sin of sports betting journalism by saying this article probably won't help you land on the right side of the Kentucky-Kansas championship matchup. As Monday morning dawns, the ViewFromVegas consensus that I like to quote on my site and on Twitter has Kentucky minus-6.5. While there are several books, both here and especially offshore, that are dealing 6, there is no clear-cut sharp side or discernible edge to be found.

But at least I'm being honest. This is the classic coin-flip of a game. If you're hearing someone trying to sell you that they have the guaranteed winner, you should probably run the other way (and keep a tight grip on your wallet while fleeing).

As we saw in the Final Four on Saturday, the oddsmakers have a pretty solid feel for these remaining teams and the numbers are tight as a drum. (How's that for a worn-out cliché? Does anyone even know how tight a drum is supposed to be? We need a new saying -- how about "as tight as banks offering supposedly federally mandated home loan modifications"?)

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.