A couple weeks ago, when favorites were piling up wins and sports books were piling up losses, handicapper Ted Sevransky told me this:
"Don't worry about the books. As long as squares keep winning they'll keep betting, and eventually they are going to lose."
Like any good wise guy, Ted had a read on human behavior. Because, while the theme in the NFL this year is that parity is dead -- and the first seven weeks of the NFL season proved it -- that doesn't mean really bad teams wouldn't eventually start to cover. Heading into Monday Night's game, the dogs are 10-2 against the spread, after going 8-5 the week before. Numbers like that will help the books get healthy real fast, which they needed after losing a combined $8 mil in Week 7 alone, according to Matt Youmans of the LVRJ.
"A few weeks ago, towards the end of the day, everyone in the book was jubilant because they had pockets full of winners," says Mirage bookmaking boss Jay Rood. "But it's been better the past few weeks, a little more choppy, meaning it wasn't all favorites winning. You knew that was going to happen. That is our business: You try to squeak out a small profit at the end of the day and survive the big swings one way or the other."