The Bracketology Report: Missouri

Updated: January 28, 2004, 12:11 PM ET
By Charlie Creme | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
Missouri (RPI No. 50, SOS No. 6) finished possibly its roughest three-game stretch on the schedule with a second straight overtime game, this one a 75-69 loss to Texas (RPI No. 22, SOS No. 40) in Columbia. The Tigers were in position to win, but Ricky Paulding missed five free throws in the final four minutes of regulation and the start of overtime, and Longhorn Brian Boddicker made a tying 3-pointer with six seconds left to send the game into an extra period. Then Royal Ivey scored 10 points in overtime, sending to Tigers to their sixth straight loss against Texas.

After three consecutive games against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Oklahoma and Texas), the Tigers finally got a break in the schedule and handled Nebraska, 72-51, at home on Saturday. After going 6-for-12 from the free-throw line against Texas, Paulding was a perfect 6-for-6 against the Cornhuskers (RPI No. 91, SOS No. 139) and scored 19 points. The game was tight until midway through the second half. Then, from the 9:33 mark on, Missouri held Nebraska to just seven points.

Coming up
With the Nebraska win secured, Missouri now has a chance to put together a winning streak and gain a little distance between itself and the .500 mark. Games at Colorado (RPI No. 75, SOS No. 84) and home against Kansas State (RPI No. 121, SOS No. 155) are on tap this week.

The Buffaloes are coming off blowout losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas. Last season Colorado roughed up Missouri, 89-68, in their meeting in Boulder. The loss ended Missouri's eight-game winning streak over the Buffaloes. After going 14-1 at home a year ago, Colorado is just 4-3 this season.

Kansas State has lost three of its last four and four of six, but the Wildcats were handed a difficult start to their Big XII schedule with Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Missouri among their first six conference games. The Tigers have beaten Kansas State five straight, including an eight-point win in Columbia last season.

"Bubble trouble"
The Tigers are No. 71 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This puts Missouri six spots away from the projected NCAA field and among the "Next Four Out" for the time being.

Kudos to Quinn Snyder's bunch for playing a tough schedule. The problem is the Tigers have done nothing with it. Their most significant win came 11 days ago against an Oklahoma team with troubles of its own.

Missouri also has trouble in that a number of teams against whom the Tigers have already fallen short-Illinois, Memphis and Iowa come to mind-are potential competitors for those precious last spots in the field.

Games of the Week
Tigers fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For Purdue @ INDIANA (Tue.)
GONZAGA @ Santa Clara (Sat.)
Against MARQUETTE @ Cincinnati (Sat.)
George Washington @ RICHMOND (Sat.)

Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) NONE
(vs. RPI 26-50) NONE
(vs. RPI 51-100) Oklahoma, @Indiana
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-150) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-150) NONE
Record vs. projected field (2-5)
Win: @Oklahoma, @Indiana
Loss: @Memphia, Syracuse, Texas, N-Illinois, Texas
Record vs. at-large pool (n/a)
Win: Iowa
Loss: @Iowa State
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Missouri
  • SOS No. 10
  • 3-2 conference record
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Missouri
  • 4-6 in last 10 games
  • 0-5 vs. RPI Top 50
  • Season breakdown (8-7, 3-2)
    All RPI data through Sunday, Jan. 26

    Date      Opponent        Result      Opp.RPI      Opp.SOS
    11/29     N-Oakland       90-85         231          193
    12/2      Coppin State    70-61         281          316
    12/6      @Indiana        63-58         54           46
    12/13     @Gonzaga        80-87 (L,ot)  17           49
    12/21     UNC Greensboro  106-98        252          279
    12/23     N-Illinois      70-71 (L)     53           89
    12/27     @Memphis        59-61 (L)     41           100
    12/30     Belmont         67-71 (L)     97           121

    1/3 Iowa 76-56 76 75 1/7 @Iowa State 65-70 72 163 1/10 Texas A&M 82-77 216 273 1/12 Syracuse 68-82 (L) 24 58 1/17 @Oklahoma 79-75 (ot) 51 95 1/20 Texas 69-75 (L, ot) 22 40 1/24 Nebraska 72-51 91 139 1/28 @Colorado 75 84 1/31 Kansas State 121 155

    2/2 @Kansas 18 21 2/7 @Nebraska 91 139 2/10 Colorado 75 84 2/15 UNLV 71 92 2/18 Iowa State 72 163 2/21 @Baylor 224 144 2/24 Oklahoma State 25 76 2/28 @Kansas State 121 155

    3/3 @Texas Tech 13 39 3/7 Kansas 18 21 3/11 BIG XII TOURNAMENT

    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Jan. 28)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 5 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 60 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 50 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 40 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 10 percent

    Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA tournament bracket for