The Bracketology Report: Oregon

Updated: February 11, 2004, 3:49 PM ET
By Charlie Creme | Insider Bracketologist

Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.

Week in review
A quiet week in Duck country saw Oregon (Inside RPI No. 66, SOS No. 99) do all it could by beating Oregon State (InsideRPI No. 172, SOS No. 97) in Eugene, 81-74, on Saturday. The win does avenge an earlier loss to the Pac 10 cellar-dwelling Beavers, but did little else for Oregon's NCAA Tournament prospects. A home win over a sub-150 club added nothing to the Ducks' already less-than-great credentials.

Nonetheless, it still wasn't easy. The Ducks trailed by as many as nine points in the second half and didn't seal the victory until Andre Joseph's 3-pointer with a minute-and-a-half left. Oregon now heads into this week having won five of its last seven.

Coming up
This week doesn't contain much more of an opportunity for Oregon to make a push into the field. The upcoming Washington-Washington State trip can likely produce only bad news. Both the Huskies (Inside RPI No. 116, SOS No. 125) and the Cougars (InsideRPI No. 147, SOS No. 168) reside outside the RPI's Top 100, meaning a loss does more damage than a win helps.

The Ducks swept the Washington schools when they visited Eugene in mid-January. It was a nice little two-game stretch for senior All-America candidate Luke Jackson, who scored 24 points against Washington and 19 against Washington State on combined 13-for-24 shooting.

These are simply survive and advance type games, with perhaps the Ducks biggest game of the season to this point looming next Thursday when Arizona (InsideRPI No. 25, SOS No. 16) comes to McArthur Court.

"Bubble Trouble"
The Ducks are No. 67 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. That's a jump of 10 spots from last week, but still puts Oregon among the dreaded "Last Four Out." Part of it is a by-product of a down year in the Pac 10 and part of it is Oregon's failures in its few opportunities, but the Ducks lack of quality wins is more obvious than Janet Jackson's breast attempt at career rejuvenation.

With a losing road/neutral record (4-5) and exactly zero wins against the RPI Top 50 the Ducks have a difficult case to make. The bottom line is they really need a win over Arizona or Stanford later this month. Right now, Oregon's resume looks more like that of would-be accountant who lists his top experience as getting an A+ in his 10th grade math class.

Games of the Week
Oregon fans should root FOR and AGAINST the teams in ALL CAPS.
For Western Michigan @ MARSHALL (Sun.)
KANSAS @ Nebraska (Sun.)
Against UTEP @ Fresno State (Thurs.)
Tennessee @ ALABAMA (Sat.)

Inside the Numbers
Additional considerations for the NCAA Selection Committee include:
"Good" wins
(vs. RPI 1-25) NONE
(vs. RPI 26-50) NONE
(vs. RPI 51-100) Fresno State, California
"Bad" losses
(vs. RPI 101-150) NONE
(vs. RPI sub-150) @Oregon State
Record vs. projected field (0-3)
Loss: N-Kansas, Arizona, Stanford
Record vs. at-large pool (1-1)
Win: California
Loss: N-Alabama
Reason(s) to INCLUDE Oregon
  • 6-4 conference record
  • 6-4 in last 10 games
  • Reason(s) to EXCLUDE Oregon
  • 0-4 vs. RPI Top 100
  • NonConf SOS No. 124
  • Season breakdown (11-6, 6-4)
    All RPI data through Monday, Feb. 9

    Date      Opponent             Result      Opp. RPI      Opp. SOS
    11/21     Fresno State         80-67         94            55	
    12/2      Portland State       62-55         274           285	
    12/6      N-Marshall           90-61         181           94	
    12/13     N-Kansas (L)         67-77         10            12	
    12/17     Santa Clara          94-71         127           126	
    12/20     N-Alabama (L)        86-87         24            1	
    12/22     @Portland            88-70         157           130	

    1/2 @Southern Cal 92-74 114 59 1/4 @UCLA (L) 74-81 86 56 1/10 @Oregon State (L) 81-90 172 97 1/15 Washington 84-74 116 125 1/17 Washington State 60-45 147 168 1/22 @Arizona State 83-76 164 108 1/25 @Arizona (L) 66-90 25 16 1/29 California 68-56 70 39 1/31 Stanford (L) 80-83 6 86

    2/7 Oregon State 81-74 172 97 2/12 @Washington 116 125 2/14 @Washington State 147 168 2/19 Arizona 25 16 2/21 Arizona State 164 108 2/26 @California 70 39 2/28 @Stanford 6 86

    3/4 Southern Cal 114 59 3/6 UCLA 86 56 3/11 Pac 10 TOURNAMENT

    Joe Lunardi's forecast (Feb. 11)
    Chance of NCAA top seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 0 percent
    Chance of NCAA bid: 30 percent
    Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 20 percent
    Chance of NIT bid: 60 percent
    Chance of missing post-season: 10 percent

    Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA tournament bracket for